Early betting for next Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV featuring the Chiefs and 49ers has been clear cut.
Kansas City gets hit hard at pick ’em. Chiefs backers can’t believe they can ride this super-surger at such a cheap price. San Francisco money comes in just as hard whenever +1¹/₂ is available. And, it doesn’t mind taking +1.
It will be interesting to see if Nevada prices drift from those in New Jersey and other legal jurisdictions. San Francisco has been a “home” team for NFL betting interests in Las Vegas and Reno dating back decades. “Locals” will jam sports books through Super Bowl weekend. Stores all over the country must manage risk based on their own exposure.
Two big questions are looming large over early handicapping analysis …
Which single player is most likely to impose his will in a virtual pick ’em?
Obviously, that’s Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He seemingly can pull touchdowns out of thin air with his arms or his legs. A bet on Kansas City means you’re positioned to win the Super Bowl clean behind another great Mahomes performance (the Chiefs have won their past seven games by 11, 20, 10, 23, 20, 7 and 31 … with the seven-pointer coming on the road at New England) or sneak through to steal a victory in the final seconds with a game-winning score.
You can see why avid Chiefs fans are confident, and why casual bettors feel Kansas City is the “safest” bet. Mahomes provides insurance that Niners offensive threats Jimmy Garappolo and Raheem Mostert just don’t offer (look for that TV commercial in the second quarter).
Which head coach is most likely to blow the game?
Just as obviously, that’s Chiefs coach Andy Reid. He’s notorious for postseason failures when favored. Even in last Sunday’s AFC Championship win over tired Tennessee, late-game clock management was abysmal.
Also, you have to worry about how well-coached the K.C. defense is. It has a knack for jumping offsides at the worst times. And, how about that defensive pass interference infraction on third-and-22 from the 25-yard line. Just let the guy catch the ball to set up a field goal. Instead, an automatic first down led to a Titans touchdown.
Kansas City’s defense definitely improved down the stretch. But did it improve enough to honor pro football’s “defense wins championships” mantra? Can it overcome coaching miscues to protect a late lead?
Bettors who see those issues creating a “true” coin flip will pass the team side and focus on the Over/Under and props. Many already pounded Over, lifting the total from an opener of 52 to 54¹/₂. Countless props will continue to go up on the board to attract football fans through the fortnight.
Have you made your call yet? Are you rooting for Mahomes? Or, against Reid?
