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We end 2022 with a strong slate of college basketball games on Saturday. One of the better games on the docket is a Big 12 battle between Texas Tech and TCU.

TCU was a sexy preseason pick to make noise this year, but the Horned Frogs started slowly, beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by one and losing at home to Northwestern State. TCU has found its form recently, however, and sits at 11-1 entering Saturday.

One reason for the Horned Frogs’ improved play is the return of 6-foot-4 senior guard Damion Baugh. He missed the first six games of the season, but his presence has given the TCU another much needed perimeter defender. In the last six games, with Baugh in the lineup, TCU has allowed 62-or-fewer points four times.

Texas Tech has played four neutral games this season, going 2-2. This will be the Red Raiders’ first true road game though, which is an anomaly almost two months into the season.

The Red Raiders are 10-2, but it’s hard to know just how good they are right now. According to KenPom, the Red Raiders’ powderpuff schedule ranks 350th. The two teams Tech has faced that rank in KenPom’s Top 150 — Creighton and Ohio State — beat the Red Raiders by a combined 18 points.

I think Texas Tech is a little overvalued here and with the Red Raiders traditionally stronger at home than on the road, I’ll back TCU at this short number.

Texas Tech vs. TCU pick: TCU -3 (BetMGM)