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Our college football betting expert offers his best betting picks and predictions for the matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas Longhorns scheduled for Saturday in Austin, Texas at 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Top-ranked Alabama is once again a loaded team with national championship aspirations, while the Longhorns could use a signature upset win under second-year coach Steve Sarkisian, the former Crimson Tide offensive coordinator who went 5-7 last season.
Alabama vs. Texas Picks
- Alabama to cover -20 spread @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
- Under 65.5 total points to be scored @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
- Bryce Young to top 2.5 passing touchdowns @ -184 via Caesars Sportsbook
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Alabama vs. Texas picks and analysis
The Crimson Tide allowed just 136 yards in a 55-0 season-opening win over Utah State, and All-American linebacker Will Anderson is ready to spend time in the Texas backfield. The Longhorns recorded a 52-10 victory over Louisiana-Monroe but have serious matchup issues with Alabama.
Alabama -20
Alabama coach Nick Saban is 25-2 against former assistants, and both defeats came last season when Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) beat him in the regular season and Kirby Smart (Georgia) got him in the national title game. It’s hard to see a third such loss occurring Saturday against Sarkisian.
Texas is trying to restore its program, while the Crimson Tide operate at the highest atmospheric level. Alabama will be hard to stop offensively, with Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young at quarterback and ready to rack up the yardage.
The Anderson-led defense is highly stingy, though Utah State’s level of athletes pale to those on the Texas roster. Anderson led the nation with 17.5 sacks last season and is craving racking up his first of this season in Austin.
Alabama has too good a team for Texas to post an upset.
Our Pick: Alabama to cover -20 spread at -117 (Caesars)
Jase McClellan Getty ImagesUnder 65.5 points
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is a highly regarded player making his second career start. Performing well against Louisiana-Monroe is one thing; carving up the Crimson Tide is a much more difficult task.
Ewers transferred from Ohio State and is the key piece to Sarkisian’s aim to get the Longhorns back on the national stage. Texas lost to Alabama in the BCS title game in 2009 and has just one 10-win season in the past 12 years.
The Longhorns will look for top back Bijan Robinson (1,127 rushing yards in 2021) to make an impact and perhaps keep the ball out of Alabama’s hands. But defensively, Texas is going to be hard-pressed to keep Young from putting points on the scoreboard.
Where the point projection is concerned, it will depend heavily on how Ewers fairs against a defense loaded with NFL talent.
Our Pick: Under 65.5 total points to be scored at -117 (Caesars)
Bijan Robinson Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesBryce Young over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Young passed for 47 touchdowns in his Heisman campaign and opened this season with five against Utah State. He also rushed for a touchdown and a career-best 100 yards.
Young tossed three or more touchdown passes on 10 occasions last season. The only time he didn’t throw for multiple TDs was the national championship loss to Georgia, when he had just one.
Robinson (over 72.5 yards rushing, -119) is certainly worthy of a look. The bad thing would be if the Longhorns fell way behind and abandoned the running game. Ewers’ passing yardage (under 214.5 at -117) is also something to consider.
No matter how you slice it, Young looks like a great bet to throw three touchdown passes.
Our Pick: Bryce Young to throw more than 2.5 touchdown passes at -184 (Caesars)
Alabama vs. Texas odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
