How much are head coaches worth in the NFL in terms of power ratings and betting success? Should handicappers try to build a “point scale” representing coaching value from best to worst?
Monday night’s matchup featuring the Broncos and Raiders (ESPN, 8:20 p.m.) brings the topic front and center again.
While it can be difficult to accurately pin down the nuances of coaching impact, the Raiders’ Jon Gruden might be Hue Jackson’s successor as underachieving coach of the year.
Gruden peaked as a head coach in 2002 with a 12-4 record. His career-to-date record at the time was 50-30, without any losing seasons. Great success. Then, a slide. Gruden finished out the “first stage” of his career on a 45-51 run (from 2003-2008) before moving to the broadcast booth.
In Gruden’s return to coaching, the Raiders are 3-11 this season … making him 48-62 since 2002. While it’s true that Oakland has covered some recent spreads, including an upset of Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the Raiders are still 5-9 versus market expectations for the season … and will finish way under their market-projected win total 7¹/₂ victories.
Unfortunately for Broncos fans, Vance Joseph is also on the short list of head coaches who are underachieving expectations. Denver is 6-7-1 ATS this season, 10-18-2 ATS in Joseph’s two years at the helm. The Broncos would have to sweep the Raiders and Chargers to surpass their market-projected victory total of seven.
VSiN encourages handicappers to evaluate head-coaching impact on market performance. We’ve mentioned in the past that firings in all the betting sports are often associated with poor point-spread runs because teams weren’t playing to expectations. We suggest the following guidelines:
- Respect coaches who consistently outperform mid-level expectations, and those who can match high expectations. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking a perennial playoff coach is nothing special if his teams are 50/50 against the number. He’s matching high standards. Have deep respect for any coaches who can succeed versus high expectations. The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era has done astoundingly well versus the spread considering how much is expected of those teams.
- Downgrade coaches who consistently underperform mid-level (or worse) expectations. It’s a strike against Gruden that the Raiders haven’t been able to match “mediocre,” as it was for Jackson in Cleveland.
This is also an angle you should be thinking about as major conference teams start to appear on the bowl schedule. Don’t invest in the wrong coaches!
