Our series of Monday NFL reports continues with a look at William Hill futures odds to win the NFC Championship. Last week we looked at odds to win the Super Bowl. Next week, we’ll cover the AFC. We hope you’ll join us all season for our “Big Money Monday” broadcasts on the most important betting night of the week.
The NFC race is shaping up to be something very special. Several teams have legitimate shots to make it to the Super Bowl. Look at how tightly packed the top of the ledger is with William Hill:
NFC Top Shelf
TEAM ODDS WIN.EQ.
Rams +425 19%
Eagles +450 18%
49ers +500 17%
Vikings +550 15%
Packers +600 14%
Falcons +650 13%
Saints +800 11%
Cowboys +1400 7%
We haven’t even made it to the Giants yet, and the win equivalents already add up to 114 percent! Sports books create a universe larger than 100 percent to represent their house edge. That’s why it can be difficult to find betting value on futures props.
Where are the Giants?
NFC Second Tier
TEAM ODDS WIN. EQ.
Giants +1500 6%
Lions +2000 5%
Panthers +2200 4%
Seahawks +2500 4%
Bears +2500 4%
Cardinals +3500 3%
Redskins +4000 2%
Buccaneers +5000 2%
There’s a 100 percent certainty that an NFC team will be in the Super Bowl. The futures environment is challenging you to find value in a 144 percent universe. If you’re wondering about “horse racing” odds rather than money line returns, the Giants are 15/1, Lions 20/1, Panthers 22/1, and so on.
Given the number of teams currently perceived as more talented than the Giants entering the 2018 season, a win at 15/1 or +1500 would provide a disappointingly small return, to say the least.
If you’re a Giants fan looking to support your side, or a handicapper envisioning dramatic improvement this season, more realistic bets would be Over 6¹/₂ wins (with a -165 money line anvil) or taking the Giants on a week-by-week basis against point spreads. If you’re skeptical about the Giants being any sort of real factor, Under 6¹/₂ with a +145 return would be the best way to go.
