Yes, the laws of sports-betting math apply to you, too.
Probably the toughest reality for squares to accept is that a 54 percent to 55 percent success rate is the widely accepted ceiling on standard 11/10 football bets (risk $11 to win $10, or anything in that ratio). They don’t just believe they’re smarter than that. They’re certain.
Squares see their picks as virtual sure things that only can be derailed by horrible luck, horrible coaching or a choking quarterback. If not for these, they would never lose.
It doesn’t help that squares often hear advertisements or game analysis suggesting 65 percent, 75 percent or even larger winning scenarios. But, the root of the problem is bettor arrogance rather than outside influences. Hype doesn’t create bad bettors. It just feeds their misguided belief system.
You’ll never hear a square saying something like, “I’ve got nine bets this week, and I hope they’ll go about 5-4.” Sharps (pro bettors) would love that win rate. That’s 55.6 percent, just above the accepted ceiling. Overconfident squares are thinking 6-3 at worst with bad luck, maybe 7-2. And, they’re going to throw in a nine-team parlay because they’d be furious if all of their picks won and they didn’t hit a jackpot.
Some facts to keep in mind:
- Oddsmakers do a good job of posting opening lines. A few market leaders go up first to test the water. Those less confident in their abilities just copy the leaders. Bettors aren’t going to see “horrible” opening lines go up very often. If you’re thinking an opener is way off, you’ve probably made a mistake.
- Sharps bet any relatively soft openers quickly. Their nickname comes from skills for “sharpening” the earliest numbers. Unless you’re faster than the sharps, you’re betting into more difficult lines.
- Sportsbooks know the public likes betting favorites, and will often shade the line a half point or a point in that direction (sharps try to time the apex with many underdog bets). If you’re the type to be very confident with your picks, it’s probably because you’ve visualized several favorites crushing outmanned opponents. You’ll have to pay a premium to back big chalk.
Squares aren’t as smart as oddsmakers, aren’t as smart as sharps and don’t think paying a premium will matter because their picks are going to cover easily. They couldn’t possibly win 60-70 percent of the time against solid and shaded lines. They’ll be lucky to go 50/50 over the long haul. It takes 52.4 percent to break even with 11/10 vigorish.
That 54-55 percent ceiling is real. You’re extremely unlikely to achieve that through a lifetime of picks (unless you win your first few and stop). Your choices aren’t likely to be strong enough for inclusion in parlays (which don’t pay off at true odds anyway).
Great expectations are unrealistic. Either you’ve realized that already in early season action, or you caught some breaks and are due for a wake-up call. Learn to be happy with an 8-7 record (53.3 percent) every 15 picks.
