NFL franchises that hire former offensive or defensive coordinators to lead their teams sometimes get “half” a head coach. He might fix problems on one side of the field, only to create more on the other.
That could be what’s happening to the Dolphins under “offensive guru” Adam Gase. Miami’s defense in recent weeks has been pathetic — possibly great news for the injury-riddled Jets, who visit on Sunday (CBS, 1 p.m.)
After a 3-0 start that shocked the league, Miami has fallen on hard times because its defense keeps letting opponents march up and down the field:
| Opponent | Points | Yards | YPP* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 38 | 449 | 6.0 |
| Bears | 28 | 467 | 7.3 |
| Lions | 32 | 456 | 7.9 |
| Texans | 42 | 427 | 7.8 |
*Yards per play
Sure, offensive numbers are up this season. But, not by that much! The horror show in Houston was particularly bad because the Texans’ offense had been struggling all season. Injured Deshaun Watson completed 80 percent of his passes. Houston hit paydirt on all four trips to the red zone.
That listing doesn’t show one off-week or flat effort. It has been sustained horrible defense.
Bettors should consider the possibility that head coaches not used to worrying about defenses may be particularly vulnerable to game evolution that favors offense. Gase can’t maximize strength because he’s saddled with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. His weakness has become an even bigger weakness.
Are the Jets are just too shorthanded to take advantage? If so, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins are on the immediate horizon for the Dolphins. File that away for future use.
Here’s a quick update of VSiN’s estimated “market” Power Ratings compiled by Jonathan Von Tobel and I. We base these on settled late-week point spreads, using three points as a standard home-field advantage.
- NFC: Rams 88, Saints 85, Packers 84, Eagles 82, Panthers 82, Bears 82, Vikings 81, Seahawks 81, Cowboys 80, Falcons 80, Redskins 79, Lions 79, Bucs 78, Giants 76, 49ers 73, Cardinals 72.
- AFC: Patriots 87, Chiefs 87, Steelers 84, Ravens 84, Chargers 82, Texans 81, Bengals 81, Jaguars 79, Colts 79, Broncos 79, Titans 77, Browns 75, Jets 74, Dolphins 74, Raiders 73, Bills 69.
Market notes from Sunday’s national telecasts that follow Jets-Dolphins …
- Rams at Saints (Fox, 4:25 p.m.): Smart money hit the Rams hard Thursday. We went with a generic “pick ’em” in our rankings because the line might not settle until kickoff. At pick ’em, the Rams would rate three points better on a neutral field.
- Packers at Patriots (NBC, 8:20 p.m.): Sharps pounded Green Bay last week against the Rams and were rewarded for their support. Similar story this week, as an opening line of Patriots -7 was bet down to -5¹/₂ or -6 depending on the store.
