Should you look at early “conference trends” to handicap later bowl games involving teams from that same league? Will that approach give your true reads, or mislead you into bad decisions?
It’s hard to avoid considering the possibilities, because there’s a lot of time between games to dig deep. Marshall of Conference USA takes on South Florida Thursday in the Gasparilla Bowl (8 p.m., ESPN). The Thundering Herd are the fourth team from C-USA to see action. North Texas and Middle Tennessee suffered embarrassing losses Saturday. UAB helped make up for that with a blowout of Northern Illinois on Tuesday in the Boca Raton Bowl. Does any of that matter?
There’s nothing wrong with looking at conference performances as part of an overall process. Bettors remember that the declining Pac-12 was overrated by the markets last season. That became clear early on … and the market never did get its point spreads to the right spot. Arizona State has already failed to cover this bowl season. This could be an ongoing angle that continues to reap dividends.
We talked earlier this year about the SEC being underrated by markets. That was true in regular-season non-conference action. It was true in some past bowl seasons, too, helped by media pundits who thought the SEC was all hype because of TV saturation. If athletic talent isn’t properly priced, it doesn’t matter what pundits say.
Among the dangers of this approach:
- The fact mid-level teams in a conference perform poorly doesn’t mean its elites will do the same. There’s enough separation within most conferences that handicappers should avoid using too broad a brush.
- Bowl results are often triggered by matchup dynamics. Quality quarterbacks will beat soft pass defenses no matter what conference the teams are from. Run-heavy offenses with turnover-prone quarterbacks will struggle against top rush defenses. That’s what matters most in bowls.
- Bowl results can also be triggered by off-the-field influences. Maybe a team is demoralized (or thrilled) about a head-coaching change. Maybe four starters got suspended for misbehaving. Particular challenges for certain teams can be completely detached from conference affiliations, holding no predictive value.
VSiN will keep an eye on early results to see if any indicators jump out. We’re particularly interested in the SEC. But the market is clearly giving that conference a lot of respect this postseason. There are 11 SEC teams (out of 14) on the docket. Nine of those 11 are favorites. Its two best teams (Alabama and Georgia) are both favored by about two touchdowns over the two best teams from the Big 12 (Oklahoma and Texas).
Of more immediate concern: Toledo and Western Michigan of the MAC play Friday. Those will be the fourth and fifth teams from that league to have taken the field after Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois and Ohio. Buffalo makes it six Saturday, to close the MAC book. Florida International makes Conference USA’s fifth appearance Friday afternoon, and Louisiana Tech its sixth and final 2018 appearance Saturday night.
Use earlier results for guidance, not as the only reasons for a bet.
