Wild-card Weekend starts Saturday afternoon with the Bills generating interest from sharps as a “defensive dog” on the road against the Texans (4:30 p.m., ESPN/ABC).
When openers first went up late last weekend, Houston was a 3-point favorite. You regulars know that’s the most important key number in football betting. Professional wagerers who respected Buffalo’s elite defense happily took those three points knowing it would take at least “Houston by four” to beat them.
That caused a drop to Houston -2¹/₂. Be sure you monitor the markets to see if public interest lifts the game back to three. Recreational bettors generally prefer favorites in playoff games, but Houston’s lack of past playoff success may not generate much buzz.
Let’s check in with the same analytic categories we used on these pages for the bowls. Offense and defense rankings (out of 32 NFL teams) refer to yards per game. Strength of schedule rankings are from Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected rankings posted by USA Today.
Buffalo (+2¹/₂) at Houston
Buffalo: 24th offense, 3rd defense, 29th schedule, +4 turnover margin
Houston: 13th offense, 28th defense, 7th schedule, even turnover margin.
There is a possible flea in the ointment for the defensive ’dog theory. Buffalo faced one of the softest schedules in the league. Its defense may look more mortal on the road against mobile Deshaun Watson. Houston’s awful defensive ranking came against a tough schedule, and could be mitigated by the return of J.J. Watt to the lineup.
For now, sharps are happy with their Bills options:
If the point spread moves back to the full three, they will reinvest.
If the point spread ranges from +1¹/₂ to +2¹/₂ , they will move the line six points in teasers to cross both the three and the seven. Buffalo +7¹/₂ to +8¹/₂ is a powerful teaser nominee in what’s projected to be the lowest-scoring wild-card game. And, there’s a good chance New Orleans (teasing down) and Philadelphia (teasing up) will also fall in the “basic strategy” window this weekend.
That doesn’t mean Buffalo is a lock, even against the teaser line. But, the wise guys do play the percentages, and this option is right in their wheelhouse.
What are the possible drawbacks of backing Buffalo?
- Young quarterback Josh Allen is erratic at best, and untested against NFL playoff pressure. At least in late-season home games, weather conditions can make the opposing quarterback erratic too. Hermetically sealed football in Houston should favor Watson and the Texans. The fact that Buffalo was slightly better than Houston in the turnover category during the regular season may not matter in this environment.
- That soft schedule means Buffalo isn’t battle-tested. The Bills lost home games to playoff-bound Baltimore, New England, and Philadelphia. Now you’re going to ask them to perform on command on the road? Houston’s No. 7 ranking in schedule strength might be a hidden key that looms large in the second half.
