Army was a surprisingly big betting story in college football last season. Gamblers should take what they learned from the 2018 campaign and apply it to the 2019 schedule that begins Friday night versus Rice at West Point (CBS Sports Network, 6 p.m.).
First, be aware the market can miss this team by a mile. Army’s option offense is relentless. Opponents who don’t respect it or are poor at stopping the run will lose touch with game expectations quickly.
Some examples from 2018:
- Army (+30) took powerful Oklahoma to overtime in Norman as a 30-point underdog. The Sooners won, 28-21. Army won total yardage 379-355 on a stunning 45-15 edge in time of regulation possession. It was a wake-up call for OU, and should have been for oddsmakers.
- Army (+7¹/₂) stunned Buffalo, 42-13, in what was supposed to be a letdown spot the following week. Buffalo was a very popular pick with pundits and touts, who assured audiences Army would have nothing left in the tank. The Black Knights followed up a 30-point regulation cover at Oklahoma with a 36¹/₂-point cover at Buffalo.
- Army (-17¹/₂) ran away and hid from San Jose State, 52-3, after a bye week. That’s a 21¹/₂-point cover, 88 points better than the market in regulation over a three-game span.
Opponents and oddsmakers generally adjusted from that point forward, resulting in just a 2-3-1 record ATS in the second half of the regular season. Army managed only 17 points each versus Air Force (17-14 win in a non-cover) and Navy (17-10 push at -7). Those teams defend the option every day in practice. But bowl opponent Houston made the mistake of not taking Army seriously.
Army (-6¹/₂) beat Houston, 70-14, in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Knights got the money by almost 50 points — a fitting end to an explosive season.
Bettors should ask themselves these questions before any Army game:
- Can the opposing defense stop the run? If not, bet Army! If so, think about the other side as a value underdog.
- Will the opponent look past Army or take them lightly? If so, give Army a serious look a reasonable prices.
- Does the opposing offense have the ability to play catch-up or hang with Army in a scoreboard shootout? Turnover-prone offenses will implode when overwhelmed with a sense of urgency. Army ranked No. 11 in the nation last season in turnover margin at +10.
Army returns a lot of significant talent on offense. It will need that experience to run clock and protect a rebuilding, relatively inexperienced defense.
This year’s “September tester” will come next weekend at Michigan. Summer betting markets projected nine regular-season wins for the Knights against an otherwise soft schedule. That’s a drop from 10-2 a year ago, but would easily qualify Army for another bowl bid.
Bettors always should remember some of the best point-spread value in college football comes from teams off the mainstream media’s radar. Programs such as Army can get lost in the shuffle, which means found money for you.
