Soccer’s World Cup and golf’s US Open both begin Thursday. They share something else in common — futures prices that don’t offer much betting value.
Let’s look at prices for the top contenders in each event., along with their equivalent win percentage. We’ll start with the U.S. Open, as that event gets under way earlier in the day.
U.S. Open Odds to Win
Player Odds (% chance to win)
Dustin Johnson 10-1 (9%)
Rory McIlroy 14-1 (7%)
Tiger Woods 14-1 (7%)
Jordan Spieth 17-1 (6%)
Jason Day 18-1 (5%)
Those five popular choices by themselves gobble up 34 percent in win probability. And there are 156 players entered! The trick is, sports books build a universe much larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. As a result, any individual golfer is extremely unlikely to offer “true odds,” let alone betting value. Your choice might end up winning. Your payoff won’t reflect the magnitude of your accomplishment given the size of the field.
World Cup odds to win
Country Odds (% chance to win)
Brazil 18-5 (22%)
Argentina 19-5 (21%)
Germany 9-2 (18%)
Spain 5-1 (16%)
France 11-2 (15%)
The top five choices represent 92 percent of the win equivalent before you even get to other contenders like Belgium, England, Portugal, and several other spoilers in the 32-team field. You could probably just wait for the knockout round before jumping in with these teams. Futures prices won’t have changed much because assumptions to qualify are already baked into the numbers.
An alternative to consider as the knockouts begin: Bet your preferred team to advance on game-by-game money lines, rolling over your investment each round. That approach will usually yield a better return than betting futures prices.
