Savvy scheduling by the NBA put “Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Zion Williamson” in a national TV spot (7:30 p.m., TNT) the Tuesday after the Super Bowl . It’s a great way to showcase “the future of pro basketball” for sports fans (and bettors) transitioning from football.
Milwaukee at New Orleans is definitely must-see basketball. Is it must-bet basketball?
As always, that depends on line value. The public bets teams. Sharps study the teams, then bet prices. Let’s see how both teams have been performing recently vs. market expectations:
Milwaukee (6-8 ATS last 14 games)
The Bucks covered 60 percent of their games through the end of 2019 (21-14). But, hurdles have since risen higher for the prohibitive Eastern Conference favorites. Markets are pricing them like a juggernaut every night. It’s not possible, or even reasonable, to play to that level. At 41-7 straight up, Milwaukee can coast to a No. 1 seed.
Worth noting for bettors is that the Bucks are 11-15 ATS as double-digit favorites this season after Sunday’s cover vs. Phoenix. They’re 16-7 ATS (70 percent) in all other games. Milwaukee is still playing with a chip on its shoulder in litmus tests.
New Orleans (15-4-1 ATS its last 20 games, 3-3 ATS with Zion)
The Pelicans were looking at 67 percent with Zion until their fourth-quarter collapse in Houston on Super Bowl Sunday. They had been on fire before his return, 12-1-1 ATS the prior 14 games.
It’s a quirk of the marketplace: In the day’s leading to Zion’s return, New Orleans had been extremely underrated by a market more focused on pro football, college bowls, and college basketball. But, oddsmakers properly lifted the Pelicans to “playoff caliber” with Williamson. They’ve been 50/50 since vs. the line.
New Orleans didn’t get “worse” with Williamson. It might have become a worse bet because expectations rose so quickly. The Pelicans have been priced as roughly a No. 5 or 6 seed with Zion in the lineup, despite a full-season straight up record of 20-30.
The opening line for Bucks-Pelicans will tell you how oddsmakers see the two teams. Remember to adjust three points for home-court advantage. First market moves will tell you what sharps are thinking. It’s possible that public action could nudge the number in the hours before tipoff. But, it’s still a bit early for recreational bettors to have that kind of impact.
Pace factors suggest Tuesday’s game will be a track meet. Milwaukee plays at the fastest pace in the NBA according to NBA.com with 105.23 possessions per 48 minutes. New Orleans is fifth at 103.38. Don’t handicap NBA totals without pondering pace!
Milwaukee-New Orleans should feel like a playoff game. Maybe more like a rock concert if both young superstars play to their norms in their first regular-season meeting. Health permitting, we’ll be watching the two most dominant NBA forces of the next decade. You’d better get used to handicapping their games.
