It’s easy for sports bettors to get buried in stats when they try to evaluate starting pitchers. There are 30 teams in the major leagues. Most staffs have a five-man rotation. That means at least 150 starting pitchers to monitor, before even counting spot starters needed because of injuries or doubleheaders.

Are there any handicapping shortcuts? We at VSiN never would advise giving half-hearted efforts to make selections, but we do want to point you in the direction of a couple of stats that do a lot of the heavy lifting. If you’re aware of these numbers every day, much of your work is done.

For the analytics-minded, we suggest xFIP. That’s a “fielding independent” statistic that evaluates pitchers only by what they have the most control over: Strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. It’s designed to run along the same scale as earned run average. That makes it intuitive for long-time fans, but it does a better job than ERA of capturing skill-sets while offering superior predictive value. In fact, studies show it does a better job of predicting future ERA than ERA itself does.

If you’re not familiar with this stat, it’s easy to find xFIP data for all pitchers at FanGraphs.com (as well as an expanded definition with the formula).

If you want to stay old school, we recommend “Innings Pitched per Start.” Only quality pitchers grade out well in this stat, because only quality pitchers are allowed to pitch deep into games.

Mediocrity makes itself apparent quickly. Any pitchers at 5.5 or less are likely to be vulnerable, while also turning the game over to the most vulnerable relievers in the bullpen.

Quality starters with stamina get you to the best relievers. Guys who can’t finish six create a burden for the rest of the staff.

If you have been struggling with your baseball bets, we encourage you to de-emphasize ERA and focus more on xFIP and Innings Pitched per Start. A tip that will help you recognize pitching strengths and weaknesses from now all the way through the World Series.

Yankees starters
Pitcher                       IP/Start    xFIP
Luis Severino                 6.3       3.09
Masahiro Tanaka           5.8       3.57
CC Sabathia                   5.6      4.53
Sonny Gray                     5.1       4.26
Mets starters
Jacob deGrom               6.6       2.78
Noah Syndergaard        5.7       2.99
Zack Wheeler                6.0       4.05
Steven Matz                   5.3       4.40
(all stats entering Friday)
xFIP ratings: Excellent 2.90; Great 3.20; Above average 3.50. Average 3.80; Below average 4.10; Poor=4.40; Awful=4.70
Source: FanGraphs.com