It looks as if the Rams are the consensus “best team in the NFL” based on futures prices and this point spreads. They’re 3-0 and have become Super Bowl favorites with the Patriots dropping two of their first three games (and looking very shaky in the process). L.A. is laying seven points Thursday night at home against the Vikings. Those NFC powers entered the season roughly even in market perceptions.
VSiN likes to construct a weekly estimate of “market” power ratings that attempts to capture how the most important influences see the league at any given moment.
To build a full scale, we start with 80-81 as the rough baseline for “playoff contender,” and 85 as an approximation for “serious title contender.” We take the point spreads from each game on the schedule to arrange teams on that scale. Our standard value for home-field advantage is three points.
For example, the Rams are -7 over the Vikings. That would be -4 on a neutral field. So we place the Rams four points higher on our scale. The final assessment after studying all 16 of this week’s point spreads looks like this:
Estimated “market” power ratings
| Teams | RT. |
|---|---|
| Rams | 88 |
| Chiefs, Eagles | 86 |
| Saints | 85 |
| Vikings | 84 |
| Patriots, Falcons, Steelers | 83 |
| Jaguars, Ravens, Chargers, Packers | 82 |
| Bengals, Texans, Panthers | 80 |
| Dolphins, Titans, Colts, Bears, Bucs | 79 |
| Browns, Broncos, Redskins, Giants, Cowboys, Lions, Seahawks | 78 |
| Jets, Raiders | 77 |
| Bills, 49ers | 75 |
| Cardinals | 71 |
There’s enough fluidity from week to week that the Patriots could soon be back at 85 or higher with strong performances (they are only -7 at home versus Miami this week … should we consider lifting the Dolphins to 80 and Patriots to 84)? Some of the teams at 79-80 may soon drop if more weaknesses are exposed. For now, it’s a fair snapshot of a fluid market.
This isn’t necessarily how we would rate the teams on our own, rather our interpretation of how the market is currently rating teams. If you accept that a liquid, well-informed betting market represents “the sum of all models,” then a good-faith market estimate should give you a better read than online computer ratings or network punditry.
We strongly recommend new bettors try building a scale on their own each week. It’s a great exercise because it forces you to get out of your own head and focus on what’s happening in the market. Hopefully you’ll develop the skill to spot misreads before they correct. Last season’s market had too much faith in Cleveland during the regular season, too little in Philadelphia “with Foles” in the playoffs.
Does it have too much faith in the Rams in 2018? It’s something to think about Thursday night.
