Despite the glut of home runs in a high-scoring MLB season, will the sports betting standard “defense wins championships” still ultimately determine the World Series champ?
If so, that could be bad news for fans and backers of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who are intently watching this weekend’s series at the Stadium. Both teams have been disappointed with their pitching in recent weeks. Both teams have below-average defensive skill sets.
Run prevention is a marriage of pitching and defense. It can be tricky to separate the two. Pitchers’ ERAs are often damaged by defenses with poor range. It’s possible for a team to have a subpar defense even if it’s not making errors. Imagine sticking an aging catcher in center field. He wouldn’t drop the ball, but many more fly balls and line drives would be landing for clean hits.
This is why VSiN always encourages bettors to focus on skill sets. For pitchers, that means using “fielding independent stats” that cover what they can control. Strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed. For defenses, it means the ability for fielders to turn batted balls into outs.
We recommend two easily available team defense stats (available on the “standard fielding page” at baseball-reference.com) that do a good job of painting an accurate picture.
- Defensive Efficiency: This is simply the percentage of batted balls converted into outs. The Yankees grade out slightly below average at .680 (68%). The Red Sox are dead last in the American League at .669 (67%). Serious championship threat Houston has a clear edge over both, leading the AL at .722 (72%). The top four teams in the league are all playoff contenders. Just behind Houston are Oakland at .710, Tampa Bay at .702, and Cleveland at .698.
- Defensive Runs Saved: Compiled by Baseball Solutions, this is the number of runs above or below average saved by the defense. Both the Yankees (-10) and Red Sox (-12) are again below average. Houston (39) also leads the AL in this stat, ahead of playoff contenders Tampa Bay (31) and Cleveland (28).
It’s been fun watching AL futures prices move around in recent days. The Yankees no longer are clear of the Astros at the top of the board. Whoever earns home field in the brackets will lead the way entering the postseason, and likely be a head-to-head favorite should they meet in the ALCS. “Run prevention” stats are shouting “Houston” as national TV networks continue virtual wall-to-wall coverage of recent Red Sox-Yankees meetings:
- Team xFIP: Houston 3.86, Yankees 4.27, Red Sox 4.30
The stat that isolates pitching skill sets favors Houston by nearly half a run. And, then they also have better defensive skill sets as you saw earlier.
Thus far, the Yankees and Red Sox have been able to outscore what they allow. That will get at least one, possibly both into the playoffs. Bettors will soon need to determine if that approach still works against playoff-caliber pitching.
