LAS VEGAS — It’s been almost two months since the NBA suspended its regular season and the rest of the sporting world came to a halt. It has been a grueling stretch filled with bets on table tennis, darts and esports to pass the time until regular human competition returns.
That day has finally come.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship will produce its 249th mixed martial arts event Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla. By all accounts, it is an extremely quality card that would be highly anticipated by any UFC fan at any time of the year.
Two ferocious strikers, Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje, will meet in the main event with the interim lightweight belt on the line. The co-main event pits an all-time great in Dominick Cruz, who last fought in December 2016, against bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo. The card includes 12 ranked fighters, including fan favorites such as Donald Cerrone, Ronaldo Souza, Michelle Waterson and ex-NFL player Greg Hardy.
Given the current climate in the world of sports, bettors have a palpable thirst for this card, much like when the NFL draft was on the horizon two weeks ago. That event resulted in a handle 12 times larger at PointsBet and five times larger for William Hill in Nevada.
Bookmakers expect an inflated handle for this card due to its isolation in a world without sports. The UFC really has three types of cards: Fight Night, regular pay-per-view cards and pay-per-view cards with a star attached. Saturday night bookmakers will likely see a handle that reflects the latter event.
“This card will be more like a Conor McGregor-type event,” said Westgate SuperBook director John Murray. “And that would be more than we write on a typical ‘Monday Night Football’ game.”
So far the main event is the center of attention at William Hill.
“The one fight we do have a ton of bets on right now is the Ferguson-Gaethje fight,” Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill’s sportsbook director, said on VSiN’s “Follow the Money” program. “That one is really being bet well out of the blocks.”
Ferguson opened as the -300 favorite when Gaethje was announced as the stand-in April 6 due to the extremely abbreviated camp that Gaethje would have had to endure for a bout that was slated to take place April 18.
However, since the fight was rescheduled and moved out of Barclays Center, Ferguson emerged as a shorter favorite, opening at minus-180 at Caesars. The change in circumstances has clearly leveled the playing field. Sharps are positioning themselves behind Gaethje, and that is what the Westgate was anticipating when its online wagering opened for business Thursday.
More will be available to bettors than just wagering on an outright outcome. That is the lone silver lining in an environment in which sporting events are few and far between. More time between events means more time for oddsmakers to get creative with what will be offered.
“We are going to do as many props on it as we can,” Murray said. “We wouldn’t usually do round props and method-of-victory props for a card like this, but because we’re just trying to generate handle and there’s no real sports going on anyway, we’re going to put up those props on every fight on this card.”
Those types of props are very popular with recreational bettors. Specifically, cCasual bettors will flood books with method-of-victory props such as victory via submission or knockout wagers. Generally, when fights go to decisions, that is a favorable outcome for the books, and in an environment where preparation for fighters is completely different, it is something bettors could see Saturday.
