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International Fight Week with bang here at The Post! MMA betting has been as fruitful and reliable as any that you will see on the internet.
Last week, we are coming off one of our best weeks of the year. Since March, UFC straight bets are up to 17-7 on the year (very proud of this record) and backers are profiting 31.64 units overall. Today, we bring in a special guest.
MMA fans know him from Sherdog.com and others know him from various social media and podcasts. Luca Fury has long been considered one of the premier MMA betting minds in the space and this fight card is so deep it warrants extra opinions.
With that, you will be able to watch select clips from our video interview below! We have been crushing this year, let’s keep it going
If you are a fan of Luca’s feel free to follow his podcast and content on Patreon and Spotify.
UFC 276 predictions
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
The two videos will give you a ton of advanced strategic insight that discusses the technical differences between these two fighters. Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is in his physical prime, whereas Jared Cannonier is 37 years old in his first title fight,
While Cannonier used to fight at heavyweight, he will still have the size and reach disadvantage against Adesanya. Had Cannonier shown some serious offensive wrestling chops, it would go a long way to a potential flyer on the challenger.
Unfortunately, none of those things are the case. Seemingly Cannonier’s only path to victory is getting his close and landing heavy shots. With Adesanya’s length, speed, and technical advantage all in play; this is a nightmare spot for Cannonier. Save your longshot underdog bets for another time.
Israel Adesanya squares off with Jared Cannonier at the UFC 276 weigh-ins Zuffa LLCUFC 276 picks
Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO in rounds two, three, four +360 (FanDuel)
Luca: -550 too high, pass.
Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya next?
Some quick analysis on the middleweight division that has been absolutely dominated by Adesanya. He did fight Alex Pereira as a kickboxer. Pereira knocked Adesanya out cold in one of those fights, he even taunted him afterward. The rivalry could lead to a very intriguing contest going forward.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski sat down with The Post’s Scott Fontanan to discuss the trilogy fight with Max Holloway. Highly recommend reading it before betting on the fight to help you get a look into the mind of the 2-0 champion.
Here’s where we truly got into the nitty-gritty. To be fair, Luca was a bit more bullish on Max Holloway than I was in this trilogy fight. However, his points did sway me quite a bit.
Having watched the fight for the third time, the salient points of an extremely close, essentially a coin-flip fight, going to -200/+150 fight seems ludicrous. At worst, it is fair to have Volkanovski as a -130 favorite but not much higher than that.
As steam comes in on the favorite, the value continues to creep towards Holloway. Holloway has a size and striking advantage in this bout. The worries of Volkanovski’s grappling against the challenger are legitimate. However, Holloway should be extremely tough to take down early on.
Overall, Fury is correct on this fight being a dog or pass situation. See parts one and two below to get into the nitty-gritty details of the fight. For now, a parlay builder is this fight to go to a decision and a flyer on Holloway on the moneyline as high as +168 at time of writing.
UFC 276 picks
Fight goes the distance -225 (BetMGM)
Luca: Max Holloway moneyline +168 — (FanDuel), Fight goes the distance (-225)
Max Holloway knocks down champion Alexander Volkanovski, with a clean right uppercut Zuffa LLCSean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz
The Suga’ Show is back this weekend in the biggest test of his career! Veteran Pedro Munhoz challenges the knockout artist and boisterous ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley.
Fury is mostly correct (video below) in his assessment of O’Malley who is a massive favorite. In all likelihood, O’Malley will not contend for a future title in this loaded bantamweight division that features Umar Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan, and Cory Sandhagen.
Although, O’Malley is a worthy favorite this weekend and an impressive striker. As a consensus -300 favorite, O’Malley should not be anyone’s moneyline bet. Instead, watch the first round and see how it goes.
If Munhoz is landing clean leg kicks, feel free to fire on the veteran at any +200 odds or better. He has never been finished in his UFC career so O’Malley will need to show some impressive power to do the never-before-seen and knockout Munhoz.
UFC 276 picks
Follow live betting strategy during Round 1
UFC 276 parlay (+844)
Stickland/Pereira goes the distance +146 + Jalin Turner ML (-148), Barbarena ML (-110), Adesanya ML (-500)
- Fury does not recommend parlay betting, these are mostly for fun and to take advantage of available promotions.













