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UFC 288, live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, kicks off on Saturday at 4 p.m. Eastern with the early preliminaries.
For those unable to attend, the prelim fight card will be broadcasted on ESPN+, with ESPN the network picking up at 8 p.m. ET.
At 10 p.m., the fight will move over to PPV for the final five fights.
The card certainly isn’t the biggest or loaded with star power, but we have plenty to discuss in these 13 fights.
The main event features New Jersey’s own Aljamain Sterling as he looks to defend his title once more against Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo.
Below we break down the biggest and best fights of the fight card.
Aljamain Sterling reluctantly takes the belt after a win by disqualification at UFC 255. Zuffa LLCUFC 288 odds and picks
Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo prediction
(-115/-105)
One of the brightest minds in the MMA game, Cejudo comes into this one as a near pick ’em after a long three-year layoff.
In that time, Cejudo has become one of the best coaches that mixed martial arts has to offer.
At his peak, he did a phenomenal job out-wrestling his opponents and avoiding compromising positions.
In particular, Cejudo had a sneaky leg kick long before it was as popular as it is now.
The argument for Cejudo is that he has wrestling skills that few can compete with, certainly rivaling that of Merab Dvalishvili.
But not working in his favor is the layoff, where he could run into many issues against a much larger Sterling.
Cejudo will want to follow the blueprint set out by Petr Yan in March of 2021, who took Sterling down seven times in a loss via disqualification.
Outside trips will be Cejudo’s his friend if he can keep the forward pressure coming and keep Sterling stumbling for balance.
Aljamain Sterling faces off with Henry Cejudo ahead of their UFC 288 title fight. Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesRing rust is of concern and if his pressure is less calculated and more wild, it could be a long night for the challenger.
Sterling will have an inside track on a potential TKO on Cejudo, who is three inches shorter with a massive seven-inch reach disadvantage.
Betting-wise, if the odds were to flip and Sterling jumps back to underdog status, he’s a fine bet at +100 on BetRivers, given we haven’t seen Cejudo in years.
The defending champ is also +1050 to win by KO/TKO on BetRivers, an excellent line given Sterling’s sneaky power and size advantages.
Gilbert Burns Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesBelal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns prediction
A title eliminator at welterweight as Gilbert Burns puts it all on the line against Belal Muhammad.
Burns is coming off a fresh win over the washed Jorge Masvidal and has a much stingier opponent in Muhammad.
Muhammad pushes an incredible pace, with extremely high-volume striking that puts opponents in a difficult-to-win cardio battle.
Muhammad is your expected minute winner, but whether he can avoid grappling with Burns is the real question.
This isn’t the best fight for betting purposes, but the strange thing about these odds is Burns’ TKO odds (+400) are lower than his submission odds (+540).
Burns has nine submissions on his resume and has the power to back Muhammad off his pressure game.
We have backed Muhammad in nearly every one of his fights since 2020, but based on the line movement for this fight, we are not the only ones.
It’s a cold game; you must know when to drop a fighter from your betting portfolio.
This isn’t goodbye to Muhammad; it’s see you later.
Small bet on Burns to win by submission +540 (Caesars).
Get the lowdown on the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain prediction
From the legendary Gracie clan, Kron Gracie makes his return to the octagon after a four-year layoff.
Typically betting on fighter’s who have been in the middle of a layoff is tough as it carries a lot more variance in an already high-variance sport.
But variance isn’t necessarily something to shy away from.
In fact, in the right spot, variance can be your friend if oddsmakers are willing to pay you a premium for it.
Gracie faces Jourdain who is an excellent striker and solid all around.
Where I worry about this fight for Jourdain is that he’s not scared to take fights to the mat and grapple.
This could prove foolish against a stud submission specialist like Gracie.
Whichever fighter wins will look like a clear side, and you’ll be saying to yourself, “That guy could’ve been -1000 tonight.”
Small wagers only but take a shot on the clear side for this submission ace.
UFC 288 parlay and best bets
Xianon Yan by decision +250 + Drew Dober -215 + Kennedy Nzechukwu -170 + Aljamain Sterling -105
Our UFC 288 parlay comes in at +2000 this evening.
A few notes before we get started.
- Yan comes into this fight as a solid bet to get the better of Jessica Andrade. She has a good size advantage over Andrade, and that lead jab should help keep her momentum going forward. +250 on FanDuel is an off-market price considering the rest of the market is +225 or worse.
- Matt Frevola has surprised many on his recent run, but Dober is where that comes to a screeching halt. Dober has a granite chin and takes one shot to deliver three. Frevola theoretically could wrestle Dober but he’s shown an improved takedown defense since his fight with Islam Makhachev.
- Many will be on Devin Clark here Nzechukwu is the much better athlete with absolute bricks for hands. Clark has been KO’d too many times to trust him here.
