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Off the heels of two title fights in a PPV last weekend, we are back at the UFC APEX center in Las Vegas for a Fight Night.

Hopefully, you liked last weekend’s guest appearance from Luca Fury where we went 1-1 after Holloway got smashed by Volkanovski. Having some guest appearances to help break down fights is something to look for going forward, especially for weekly UFC betting picks. here at The Post.

This weekend’s fight card is a bit light on name value but there are some intriguing bouts. Interestingly enough, there are some early prelims fights that are more competitive and exciting stylistically than the main card ones.

You will see plenty of that below. Let’s cash some tickets!

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  Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev Zuffa LLC Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev Zuffa LLC

UFC Fight Night predictions today

Rafael Dos Anjos (+180) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-225)

A very interesting main event between the elder statesman Dos Anjos against the up-and-coming Fiziev. Skill for skill, Dos Anjos should have Fiziev beat, but is father time going to finally come from the former Brazillian champion?

Fiziev has an extensive kickboxing resume where he was 38-9 with about three-quarters of those being knockouts. Fiziev is the better athlete here as well so quickness and striking are what Fiziev wants to rely on to carry him to victory.

Notably, Fiziev has not fought five rounds in the octagon yet. When he fought Bobby Green (a fight many had scored for Green) Fiziev did appear to tire after winning the first round. Fiziev won that three-round fight by a decision but there are very reasonable question marks about his cardio in a five-round fight.

For Dos Anjos, he gets hit quite a bit. Standing heavy on his front foot negates his ability to move side to side and keep his head off the centerline. That could spell disaster for Dos Anjos could be put out early in this fight.

For betting purposes, the best way to bet this fight is to watch the first round and see how Dos Anjos looks. You will get plenty of information about how this will play out. If Dos Anjos survives and is pushing the pace of Fiziev, a live bet on Dos Anjos is a solid investment.

Most sportsbooks are anticipating a Fiziev win by decision (+125 on BetMGM). This is a bad bet. Fiziev has never been five rounds and Dos Anjos is probably his best level of competition faced yet. If Fiziev does win, it would likely have to come within the first three rounds.


  Rafael Dos Anjos beats Paul Felder by decision Zuffa LLC via Getty Images Rafael Dos Anjos beats Paul Felder by decision Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Pre-fight Dos Anjos’ grappling pace is the key to victory. He is a very smart fighter that needs to avoid Fiziev’s quickness and power. Fiziev could win this one by KO and light him up into oblivion but the value is on Dos Anjos to win by decision.

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UFC Fight Night pick today

  • Rafael Dos Anjos wins by decision +390 (FanDuel)

Ronnie Lawrence (-125) vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+105)

The first fight of the card! A best bet for tonight’s UFC card comes on this grappling savant, Ronnie Lawrence, who faces off against Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Good luck to the UFC announce team pronouncing that one correctly multiple times tonight.

Ronnie Lawrence has burst onto the scene in the UFC dominating his opponents with overwhelming grappling and control. However, a major bump in the road hit in round three against Leomana Martinez. Lawrence was nearly KO’d in that bout.

The grappling exchanges for this fight should be plenty interesting as Kakhramonov showcased a nasty set of guillotine chokes against Trevin Jones. Undoubtedly, this guillotine will be tested early against Lawrence who will be shooting for takedowns throughout with (potentially) his neck exposed.

Aside from Kakhramonov’s guillotine, his grappling defense didn’t look great. Against a better wrestler, it would make any coach weary that jumping guillotine will do nothing but tire out your arms and lose you rounds.

Lawrence should win rounds and take a decision here more often than not. Take Lawrence here as the -120 favorite with clear cardio and grappling edges.

UFC Fight Night pick today


  Michael Johnson Zuffa LLC Michael Johnson Zuffa LLC

UFC Fight Nght parlay (+676)

This parlay was placed on PointsBet Sportsbook and the odds were accurate at the time of writing.

  • Lawrence (-125) + Johnson/Mullarkey over 1.5 rounds (-152) + Sherman/Vanderaa ‘over’ 1.5 rounds (-179)+ Kennedy Nzechukwu (-150)

Another parlay to add to the card for this weekend’s Fight Night. A few notes to round out the betting breakdown.

  • Flirted with Michael Johnson in this parlay, he is my third favorite bet of the card as a +200 underdog. For now, ‘over’ 1.5 should be good as neither fighter is a bonafide finisher. The odds suggest the opposite, which is based on one finish by Mullarkey against Khama Worthy (since been cut).
  • Sherman vs. Vanderaa is one of the worst main card fights we have seen in ages. Neither guy profiles as a legit UFC caliber fighter so this one should be a low-level affair that could easily go the distance.
  • A tough one for Karl Roberson who faces off against Kennedy Nzechukwu. Roberson has maybe one round of cardio before Nzechukwu likely gets the finish in round two or three.
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