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The UFC returns to London today! Fantastic news for fight fans looking for a party-like atmosphere – as was the case last time in England.

This weekend we have another very strong guest to help break down this big fight card. Nick Kalikas is the co-host of the UFC on the Line show that is produced by the UFC and shown only on UFC Fight Pass. He is also the risk manager for Circa Sportsbook.

A risk manager is a person that you are betting against. He is the one making betting lines and is preparing for action to come in from players.

Circa Sportsbook is a ‘sharp’ sportsbook made mostly for professionals who hope to get down massive amounts of money on games and fights. They regularly take tens of thousands of dollars of single bets on UFC fights.

This is all to say; he knows what sharp bettors are putting their money and where. This is different than our last guest, Luca Fury, who is an actual betting sharp (he might use Circa Sportsbook) in the MMA betting space.

Kalikas has loads of MMA knowledge. Thanks for the insights, Nick!

A potential title eliminator at heavyweight, Curtis Blaydes battles Tom Aspinall in a massive fight between contenders. Between the two of us, the excitement can be described as giddy when discussing this fight.

Kalikas opened his line at Circa at -140 for Aspinall when the rest of the market had it at -108 both ways. Kalikas told The Post, “I opened the market -140 when the market was leaning towards Blaydes. I wanted to attract that money on Blaydes initially, which I did. Now sharp support is coming in on the Aspinall side and it is back to my -140 line.” He continued, “It is more potential over credentials at this point.”

Aspinall has only fought 15 minutes inside the UFC octagon but if Blaydes has his way, this will go the full 25 minutes. Blaydes has looked excellent in his last few fights since the brutal knockout loss he suffered to Derrick Lewis. Blaydes has only lost three times in his career, all by knockout, two of which were to current champion, Francis Ngannou.

Since then, Blaydes has shown significantly crisper striking but his real secret sauce is wrestling. Kalikas appreciates Blaydes’ improvement on the feet, but that could actually be his downfall.

Kalikas said, “He is falling in love with his striking man. If Blaydes doesn’t implement that gameplan early, he needs to pursue that takedown early and get him to the ground.”

He’s right, too. If Blaydes stands and strikes with Aspinall, he will lose. This is all to say, if he does not shoot from a takedown by the three minute mark, he is setting himself up for another heartbreaking loss.

We had some disagreement here but that’s healthy in the betting space. We agree that there’s really two ways this fight ends. Blaydes wins by decision via grappler or Aspinall wins by TKO.

As for me, Blaydes is +450 to win by decision and this represents most of his win condition. Overall, these are the two likely ways that this fight to goes. As a bettor who holds a ticket on Blaydes to be the heavyweight champion by December 31st this year at 80:1 — there may be some bias involved.

Chris Curtis is dominating opponents left and right after 37 career fights, he finally finds himself in the upper echelon of fighters in the UFC. Now he steps in to fight Jack “The Joker” Hermansson on just two weeks notice in England.

The early money was on the red-hot Curtis who opened at most books around +140. Since then, money has come in on Hermansson. Many moons ago in an article diving into some high-level MMA data, there was some interesting trends. Noteably, when a sportsbook labeled a fighter as a favorite and public steamed the underdog to favorite status (example: open -150, close +120) the book was actually right, much more often than not and the initial favorite ending up winning as an underdog.

That is exactly what is happening here as Curtis opened as a dog and is now on the verge of closing as a favorite.

Kalikas explained, “Recently more sharp money is coming on Hermansson. Early-on, money was coming in on Curtis (as an underdog) and there are conflicting opinions. I think this is the letdown spot on the Curtis side.”

Kalikas is riding Hermansson but another spot to target would be fight to go the distance +108. This would obviously tend to favor Hermansson who is the most live to a win a decision.

Hermansson has gone to three straight decisions in the UFC.

In a podcast appearance last Saturday, I screamed to the heavens that Pimblett was a fade at -300. Well, not to backtrack too hard, but Pimblett down to -250 is a significant movement. Furthermore, he looks angry, motivated, and zeroed in on his opponent.

As the line has dropped, Pimblett is becoming a worthy bet. As for Leavitt, he’s a very strong grappler but his striking — not so much. Pimblett has found himself in heavy striking exchanges as the fight begins.

In the future, Pimblett is a fade candidate but this matchup would tend lean itself towards a knockout win, and possibly early.

On Pimblett, Kalikas explained, “Matchup wise this is a great spot for him because if he can neutralize the grappling, he should have a field day on the feet. He has a big advantage striking and he realizes that. He has been saying that all week to the media, he’s smart, he knows how he can win this weekend”.

Pimblett’s antics look like they have been taking an effect on Leavitt, too.

Welcome back to the former title contender from Sweeden, Alexander Gustafsson. Gustafsson trains with Khamzat Chimaev these days, although it is unknown how much of that he is doing recently.

This bet is most about Kyrlov having not been a -200 since UFC 201 in 2016. Last time out, he lost as a -180 favorite. Gustafsson is the better striker here and as long as he is not completely washed an unable to stop takedowns, he should use his movement to his advantage throughout.