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Monday night at the US Open belonged to Serena Williams. The 23-time Grand Slam Champion played all the hits in front of a sell-out, star-studded crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium en route to a straight-set victory over Danka Kovinic.

And while Serena looked good in the 6-3, 6-3 victory and got the job done in a timely manner, the all-time great will need to be even better if she has a chance of pulling the upset over World No. 2 Annett Kontaveit. 

Oddsmakers have installed Kontaveit as a -220 favorite over Williams, which is not something the sporting public is used to seeing in a Serena match.

The odds may suggest that Serena’s chances are relatively slim — according to implied win probability, a +180 moneyline translates to 35.7% — there are some silver linings in this matchup.

For one, the crowd will be on her side and could throw Kontaveit off her rhythm. Additionally, Serena is catching the Estonian at a pretty good time.

Although she looked terrific in Round 1 against Jaqueline Cristian, Kontaveit has not impressed during the summer hard-court season. She made it to just one quarterfinal in four tournaments and had dropped three of her last four matches heading into Flushing. 

Kontaveit’s current drop in form is a bit surprising since this is her best surface and she had plenty of success on hard courts over the last calendar year. 

In form or not, Kontaveit should be able to handle this version of Williams with relative ease. While Serena’s effort against Kovinic was probably the best version of the GOAT that we’ve seen since she returned to action after a year-long hiatus, there were still some reasons for concern, especially against a player of Kontaveit’s status. Serena did perform well on serve, but she also benefited from Kovinic’s struggles with her serve, which allowed Williams to generate 11 break points and break five times. It would be surprising to see Kontaveit offer up the same kind of opportunities to Serena that Kovinic did.

Serena is just 2-2 during the North American hard-court swing and 2-3 overall since returning from her hiatus, so it’s fair to question how her fitness and rhythm will stand up against one of the world’s best players. It’s also worth noting that Williams’ two wins came against players ranked outside the top-50 and when she’s had to step up in class, like in her matches against Belinda Bencic and Emma Raducanu, she’s struggled to keep up and lost in straight sets.

For Serena to win, she’s going to need to be picture-perfect on serve and hope that the crowd — and moment — prove too much for Kontaveit. That seems unlikely, however, and while it’s no fun to bet against Serena in a moment like this, the value is on Kontaveit to send the legend into retirement in a straight-set victory.

Annett Kontaveit to win in straight sets (+120, FanDuel)