Serena Williams is not done just yet.

After breezing through her Round 1 opponent, World No. 80 Danka Kovinic, most people (including bookmakers and myself) thought that getting past World No. 2 Annett Kontaveit would be a bridge too far for the 40-year-old Williams. The Estonian was a -220 favorite over Williams, but dropped the first and third sets of a riveting match in front of a raucous, well-served New York City crowd.

The worry for Kontaveit backers was that the moment would overwhelm the Estonian and throw her off her game just enough to cede the court to Serena. That’s exactly what happened, especially in the third set, as Kontaveit started hitting errors in big moments and never was able to get the match on her terms enough to get Serena out of her comfort zone.

To beat Serena at this point of her career, you need to find a way to engage her in long rallies and extend the match to take advantage of her diminishing mobility. Williams still has an elite first serve and powerful groundstrokes, so she can dictate play through her force, but if you can survive that and keep the ball in play long enough to get the 23-time champion on the move, you’ll give yourself a great chance to come out on top.

That’s easier said than done, though, and Ajla Tomljanovic will be the next competitor to find that out. The 29-year-old Aussie is a +120 underdog against Serena on Friday night. 

Tomljanovic has enjoyed a pretty solid summer, making a run to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and then following that up with some modest success during the summer hard-court swing.

Like Kontaveit, Tomljanovic is probably undervalued here in a vacuum. Bookmakers know that people will want to bet Serena Williams on Friday night, so they can hang basically any price and still take money. Similar to the “Tiger Tax” in golf, Serena-backers will know going into the match that they’re paying a premium.

On the other side of the coin, it must be considered how much of a factor the moment and crowd have on Serena’s opponents right now. It takes a special type of athlete to be able to drown out the noise and focus on tennis in this kind of environment and it was pretty clear that Kontaveit struggled with it on Wednesday night. 

Although in decent form off a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati, Tomljanovic isn’t as complete a player as Kontaveit and is especially vulnerable with her second serve. We saw Serena try and take advantage of Kontaveit’s second serve to some success on Wednesday night and that is a recipe that the American can replicate here. 

Even though Williams is clearly nowhere near the level she was at during her salad days, it does seem evident that she won’t go quietly into her retirement. Serena’s win over Kovinic was a nice story, but her performance against Kontaveit was a warning shot that maybe she’s got more to give than she let on in suspect performances in Toronto and Cincinnati. 

With Serena upping her level and playing in front of a raucous crowd, this match could have plenty of twists and turns. But it does seem like we can be confident in a couple of things: Serena won’t go quietly and she isn’t at the height of her powers, so she won’t blow Tomljanovic off the court. 

Over 2.5 sets (+118, BetMGM)