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The USC Trojans are unbeaten. They have a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Caleb Williams. So obviously, the Trojans are underdogs of more than a field goal to Utah (4-2) on Saturday.
While that line may seem out of whack to the casual bettor — and based on all the public money coming in on USC, that’s the case — Utah is in a great spot at home to give the Trojans their first loss.
USC has played two road games this season, beating lowly Stanford by 13 and barely getting by Oregon State, 17-14. The Trojans needed to convert on fourth down late in that one to stay undefeated. The 17 points against Oregon State are by far the fewest USC has scored this season, and Williams struggled against the Beavers’ athletic defense, completing just 16 of 36 passes for 180 yards.
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham ShutterstockUtah’s defense is very similar, and I think the Utes will overpower USC in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Trojans’ front seven is small, and Utah has the best rushing offense they will have faced to date. Utah averages 192.6 yards per game (28th) on the ground, while the Trojans’ defense allows 152.7 yards (68th).
Look for Utah to control the ball and send USC home with its first loss of the season.
Pick: Utah -3.5
TEXAS (-16) over Iowa State
Is Texas back? It certainly looked like it last week, when the Longhorns rolled over rival Oklahoma, 49-0. The return of quarterback Quinn Ewers is huge for Texas. The Longhorns’ offense is much more explosive with the former top recruit under center, and I’d argue that Texas would be undefeated had Ewers not been injured against Alabama.
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Iowa State is really struggling on offense, averaging just 19.4 ppg (109th). The Cyclones won’t be able to keep up with Texas on the road.
LSU (+2.5) over FLORIDA
LSU got embarrassed at home last week by a good Tennessee team, but now the Tigers face a Florida squad against which they match up better, especially on defense. LSU head coach Brian Kelly has been money in this spot. Kelly, in his first year with LSU, is 25-16 (61 percent) against the spread coming off a loss and 14-6 (70 percent) ATS as an underdog in those situations. Give me LSU plus the points.
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Penn State (+7) over MICHIGAN
I make Michigan -4 in this matchup and was surprised to see the number open up at more than a touchdown. These are two good defenses in what feels like a close, physical battle throughout. I’ll take the points with Penn State and throw a few bucks on the moneyline too.
Last week: 2-2. Navy (W), Tennessee (W), Army (L), Northwestern (L)
Season: 10-9-1
