It’s not quite an elimination battle when the Chicago Cubs visit the Mets for three games Tuesday through Thursday. Both teams, or neither team, still could reach the playoffs regardless of what happens.
But, futures bettors rooting for either side are certainly feeling a sense of urgency after both teams were swept at home in high-profile litmus tests this past weekend.
- The Cubs lost three times to the red-hot Washington Nationals, getting outscored 23-10.
- The Mets were humbled by the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, scoring just seven runs in a three-game sweep. That dropped New York 12 games behind Atlanta. Backers who took fliers on those 500/1 and 300/1 divisional tickets temporarily available from William Hill now have virtually no chance to cash. Atlanta is still on pace to make a run at 100 wins. At 67-63, the Mets wouldn’t reach 100 wins even if they finish 32-0!
Recreational bettors will find it’s helpful to think about win targets when evaluating past futures bets, or placing new ones at updated prices. It can seem easier for your choice to “chase down” a team from behind if you’re only thinking about that one leader. Baseball is full of come-from-behind stories — but those were usually because the leader collapsed, not because the chaser won 80 percent of its September decisions. Most leaders don’t collapse.
If it’s going to take 95 wins or more to capture a division (likely true in all but the NL Central this season), what would it take for your team to reach that target?
What will it take to earn a wild card? In the American League, the answer might still be 95 victories with three current threats within reasonable reach (Rays, Indians and A’s). In the NL, Washington’s recent surge has put 95 within reach. The other spot might go to a record as bad as 85-77.
Required closing charges:
- To finish 95-67: Cubs 26-6, Mets 28-4 (not going to happen for either!)
- To finish 90-72: Cubs 21-11, Mets 23-9 (possible, but challenging in a competitive league.)
- To finish 85-77: Cubs 16-16, Mets 18-13 (the clear target for both, though this threshold is also within reach for the Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies and even Giants.)
As you evaluate futures prices to win a division, league, or world championship, first consider what it will take just to get into the playoffs. Then, map out the likely postseason pathway to go the distance.
It quickly will become apparent that no wild-card contenders are being priced anywhere near “true” odds to win their leagues or the World Series. And, most serious championship threats already return so little that you can probably wait until the playoffs and still get similar returns. Why not wait to make sure your best players enter October in good health?
If your handicapping suggests one or two teams are poised to close strong, pick your spots game-by-game rather than betting futures.
