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Vermont is a massive favorite over UMBC in the America East Tournament final on Saturday, which starts an epic day of college hoops at 11 a.m. Eastern.
UMBC is a good-shooting team. But the Retrievers shot 20-for-43 (46.5 percent) from 3-point range in their two-game run to the championship game. Their opponents — Hartford and UMass Lowell — shot just 11-for-46 (23.9 percent) from beyond the arc.
Don’t expect UMBC to shoot that well at Vermont.
The Catamounts beat UMBC by 17 in Baltimore in mid-January, and then beat UMBC by 26 in Burlington, Vt., in late February. In those two games, Vermont finished with 1.35 ShotQuality PPP finishing at the rim. In the latter game, Ryan Davis finished with 1.6 ShotQuality PPP in post-up situations.
It was all Cats and no Retrievers in the paint that day. Coach Jim Ferry and the Retrievers will have no answer on defense for Vermont — especially when Catamounts coach John Becker has his offense so locked in. Vermont’s offense is in perfect rhythm and flow, and the points just come easily.
I’m also expecting Becker to be locked in after last year’s tournament disaster when the top-seeded Catamounts were upset by Hartford in the semis. Don’t expect Vermont to take its foot off the gas — it didn’t in the last matchup with UMBC even after Vermont clinched the regular-season title in the prior game.
I’ll lay the points with our Catamounts, as they cover every number anyway. Then, get ready to bet Vermont ATS and ML in the first round of the tournament, because a No. 13 over No. 4 upset is coming.
The play: Vermont -15.5
