A year ago, the last thing you would want for your rookie quarterback was to feed him to the defensive warriors who wear purple and white for the Vikings.
But Sam Darnold and the Jets may have a fighting chance Sunday when they play host to the Vikings (Fox, 1 p.m.). In 2018, Minnesota’s defense barely resembles last season’s fantastic unit. Look at these dramatic drops in rankings across a variety of defensive stats from last season to this season:
Minnesota’s defensive drop
| CATEGORY | 2017 RANK | 2018 RANK |
| Total yardage | 1st | 16th |
| Yards per play | 1st | 26th |
| Opp. passer rating | 3rd | 27th |
| Total rushing | 9th | 9th |
You can see the biggest fall is in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks are moving the ball and scoring on the Vikings defense. Sure, some of that might involve offseason rules changes. But the rules changed for everyone, not just the Vikings.
Interestingly, the collapse of the pass defense actually began in last season’s playoff loss in Philadelphia. Backup Eagles quarterback Nick Foles posted a nearly spotless passing line of 26-33-0-352 against the vaunted Vikings defense.
Oddly, Darnold will be the third rookie quarterback Minnesota has faced this season. Josh Allen of Buffalo was 15-22-0-196 in a shocking 27-6 Bills’ win. Last Sunday, Josh Rosen of Arizona went 21-31-1-240 in a 27-17 loss. That gives analysts a ballpark assessment for what “inexperience” can do against Minnesota. Unlike Allen and Rosen, Darnold will be playing at home.
If you’re a Vikings fan hoping for another deep run in the playoffs, the following numbers should give you cause for concern. That horrible playoff performance at Philadelphia foreshadowed these similarly bad opposing passing lines on the road in 2018 vs. playoff caliber foes:
- Aaron Rodgers: 30-42-0-281
- Jared Goff: 26-33-0-465
- Carson Wentz: 24-35-0-311
Big yardage allowed. No interceptions. Minnesota’s defensive reputation turns to dust away from home against offenses that know what they’re doing. You can’t reach the Super Bowl that way. Nor can you offer value to futures investors.
Those varying stat ranges for opposing quarterbacks set up an important litmus test for handicapping the Jets. A big performance here — on the heels of 34 points scored vs. Denver and 35 vs. Indianapolis (knocking a defensive TD off the final scoreboard) — and the Jets offense moves into the “knows what it’s doing” category that can be trusted more enthusiastically to cover point spreads. Something less impressive, and Darnold is still a rookie who will yield inconsistent investor payoffs.
Bettors must keep learning about Darnold as Darnold learns the league.
