NFL playoff action resumes Saturday with the start of the divisional round. The week must have flown by fast for the Minnesota Vikings, who won an overtime thriller last Sunday in New Orleans before getting assigned the first Saturday game this week.
That’s short rest and preparation to play two time zones away from home against No. 1 seed San Francisco.
In that context, the Vikings are getting respect in the line. They’ll likely close as touchdown underdogs when other divisional-round visitors (Tennessee and Houston) are seeing higher prices. A team that can beat the very experienced Drew Brees outright has a chance to hang within a touchdown of Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career playoff start.
Let’s go back to our indicator categories for handicapping context. These were helpful outlining expectations last week. Stat rankings are from the regular season. Offense and defense refer to yards per game. Strength of schedule rankings are from Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected rankings posted by USA Today.
San Francisco (-7) vs. Minnesota, 4:35 p.m., NBC
Vikings: 16th offense, 14th defense, 24th schedule, plus-11 turnover margin
49ers: Fourth offense, second defense, 17th schedule, plus-four turnover margin
San Francisco gets the nod across the board until turnover differential. Minnesota’s defense, however, can rise to the occasion in big games. It limited the explosive Saints to 324 yards and a 36-percent third-down conversion rate while forcing a couple of turnovers. That said, a fresh San Francisco defense should still be superior.
- The case for Minnesota: The Vikings can use the same “shorten the game” tactics that turned the Saints matchup into a coin flip. Quarterback Kirk Cousins seems to play better when expectations are low. Though San Francisco had some high-profile home blowouts this season (Cleveland, Carolina, Green Bay), the 49ers covered only one of five at Levi’s Stadium from November on. They lost outright to Atlanta and Seattle, and could have fallen to the Rams, too.
- The case for San Francisco: This is a difficult schedule spot for the Vikings. San Francisco’s elite defense could force punts and turnovers all day, creating short fields for Garappolo. That’s the Niners’ accelerant for blowout victories.
Most books opened at 49ers -6¹/₂ and sat there for a couple of days. Sharps weren’t laying those points just below the key number of seven. Squares (recreational bettors) eventually did, lifting the line to 49ers -7 midweek. The public historically loves taking rested home favorites in this round. Anything at -7 or less will appeal, particularly as media hype grows about Minnesota’s situational challenge.
As VSiN discussed last week, sharps like betting defensive ’dogs for value. They certainly would hit the Vikings hard if +7¹/₂ becomes available before kickoff. Many will settle for +7, particularly those who won with Minnesota last week.
Game-day betting should show the classic tug-of-war between sharps and squares, setting the weekend.
