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After a crucial divisional win over the Commanders last week, the Giants are viewed as near-locks to secure their first postseason berth since 2016.

They could even do so as early as this week with a win over the enigmatic Vikings, who enter Week 16 as one of the more bizarre 11-3 teams in NFL history and are slim favorites to win again at BetMGM.

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Fox.

There’s never been a team in league history quite like the Vikings, who are 11-3 and have outscored their opponents by a measly two points across the entire season. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of scoring an outright win on Saturday.

The surface-level stats are passable for this group, but they’ve struggled mightily just to beat mediocre competition all year long. Look no further than last week, when they fell down by 33 points to the Colts (4-9-1) before mounting the largest comeback in NFL history.

There are two ways to look at that, of course. On one hand, this Minnesota team is resilient, as evidenced by its seven fourth-quarter comebacks this season. But it’s also one of just seven teams to even face a 33-point deficit this season – and the only one to do so twice.

That says all you need to know about the Vikings’ inability to sustain elite play, even after last week’s stunning comeback win. That sentiment is reflected in this team’s mediocre record against the spread (6-8) and the fact that oddsmakers continue to price them as slim favorites despite an impressive win-loss record.

Conversely, the Giants have consistently exceeded expectations en route to a 10-4 ATS record, tied for the second-best mark in the league. New York snapped a four-game winless skid with last week’s crucial win over rival Washington, which saw this team build a commanding halftime lead and hold on late with a season-defining goal-line stand in prime time.

Daniel Jones showed some flashes in that game, too, which should concern a Vikings secondary that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed (278.8 YPG) and 27th in pass defense DVOA. They’re only slightly better against the run, which is worrying against do-it-all back Saquon Barkley, who ranks sixth in scrimmage yards per game (104.6) and eighth in rushing touchdowns (9).

If this game were priced as a true coin flip, there’d be a better argument for backing the Vikings after the way they’ve seemingly pulled magic out of a hat all year long. But the Giants actually grade out better in DVOA and nearly identically in net yards per play, which makes them particularly compelling as decent road underdogs.

Typically, grabbing the points on underdogs of just more than a field goal is worth the gamble. Teams catching between 3.5 and 4 points are 28-17-1 ATS (62.2%) this season and have been profitable each of the last five years, tallying a combined 114-80-2 ATS record (58.8%) in that stretch.