Are betting markets now overrating No. 16 Seton Hall?
That’s an important question to ponder in advance of Wednesday’s huge Big East battle against No. 21 Butler (FS1, 6:30 p.m.). Though Seton Hall’s games aren’t available for legal betting in New Jersey, the Pirates are on the board not far across the state lines in Pennsylvania and in Monticello, N.Y. And market performance could signal that the Pirates peaked too early.
For the full 2019-20 college basketball season, the answer is obviously no. The Pirates are 16-9 against the spread, for a sparkling cover percentage of 64. They’ve clearly been one of the most underrated programs if you accept the premise that game-by-game point spreads are the best representation of how teams are “rated” through a campaign.
But, if you’re emphasizing more recent action, the answer is arguably yes.
- Seton Hall failed to cover its last two games, losing outright at Providence 74-71 as three-point favorites, and losing badly to Creighton 87-82 laying 5¹/₂ points. That’s 0-2 straight up as favorites, with a combined miss of 16¹/₂ points.
- Seton Hall is also 2-4 ATS its past six games, with wins over Villanova and Georgetown preceded by non-covers vs. Xavier and DePaul.
That impressive 16-9 full-season ATS record was once 14-5. Percentage-wise, a downward trend from 74 to 64.
This doesn’t mean Seton Hall has no shot in the national championship chase. You’ve likely heard of “sandwich games” in sports, where a matchup that doesn’t get the juices flowing is preceded and followed by a marquee opponent. February is a “sandwich month” in college basketball. January brings peak intensity in the first month of conference action. March is madness! February can cause powers to lose focus as they look ahead to tournament thrills.
Other possible causes for Seton Hall’s slide:
- Fatigue: Senior star Myles Powell may be wearing down from heavy minutes Powell was 3 of 14 shooting in the loss to Xavier, 3 of 16 in the loss to Creighton, and had a season-worst seven turnovers in the loss to Providence.
- Familiarity: Seton Hall may be easier for opponents to deal with in a second look. The Pirates are 1-3 ATS in rematches (covering vs. Georgetown; failing vs. DePaul, Xavier and Providence), but a stellar 7-2 ATS in Big East first looks (including the recent road upset of Villanova). This could be bad news for “third looks” in the Big East Tournament, but basically resets against opponents from other conferences in the Big Dance.
Wednesday’s Butler game is a rematch. Seton Hall (+5) won 78-70 in Indianapolis on Jan. 15. The Bulldogs will be looking for revenge.
Analysts should keep an eye on Powell in coming action. Tournament forecasters (and bettors in jurisdictions who can play Seton Hall games) should ponder whether recent market performances are an early-warning sign for March disappointments. Hurdles will stay high. This national championship dark horse may be losing speed.
