Saturday’s must-see, litmus-test thriller in college basketball features No. 1 Tennessee visiting No. 5 Kentucky (ESPN, 8 p.m.). Both teams are deep in the discussion for first and second seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Both, however, have critics suggesting they won’t measure up to ACC or Big Ten powers come tournament time.
Handicappers and bettors should scout this game even if they’re not betting it, with a focus on these particular indicator categories:
Is Tennessee capable of playing “championship caliber” defense?
Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) ranks defenses based on points allowed per possession, adjusted for strength of opposition. While Tennessee ranked a very respectable 40th nationally out of 353 measured teams midweek, it doesn’t measure up to other powers.
Duke, Virginia, and Michigan rank in the top five of adjusted defensive efficiency, Kentucky and Michigan State are in the top 10, Gonzaga is in the top 20. Last weekend, the NCAA announced its preliminary “top 16” teams for Big Dance seeding. Tennessee had the second-worst defensive ranking in that group, better only than Purdue.
If you believe “defense wins championships,” you’re going to have a hard time making a case for Tennessee once the sport’s elites are squaring off head-to-head in the tournament. It’s hard to string together neutral-court victories against quality when you bring the inferior defense to the court.
Can Kentucky maintain its composure late in games versus quality opponents?
It’s not uncommon for teams with many young impact players to falter late in nail-biters. Either too many shooters want the ball in their hands, or there’s too much passing before the shot clock runs out. That’s not going to work against top competition.
This issue moved front and center in Kentucky’s two most recent games. The Wildcats were outscored 34-23 in the final 16:51 by LSU in a home loss Tuesday night. That came after they were outscored 36-22 in the final 16:32 last Saturday at Mississippi State. Call it 33.5 minutes of crunch-time basketball (not even a full game’s worth), and you get a 70-45 loss. It’s not as if upcoming games are going to have less pressure.
Obviously the SEC Tournament could be a thrill ride if Tennessee and Kentucky continue to show exploitable weaknesses.
Be sure to monitor the markets Saturday. Home-court advantage is usually worth three points in college hoops. If Kentucky is laying more than that, then the composite wisdom of oddsmakers and sharps is saying the Wildcats would be a neutral-court favorite. If the line is less than three, Tennessee gets the neutral-court nod.
