Last week, I started a two-part series highlighting how certain starting pitchers in Major League Baseball fare against specific opponents. I showcased the best starting-pitcher trends for bettors to recognize in 2021. This week I will share the worst trends among pitcher-opponent matchups in recent years, as determined by the return on investment.

This week’s information is a little more startling because several top pitchers are represented on this “worst” list. These pitchers are often so overpriced that even if they pitch well, they can still lose, and bettors feel the pain. Betting against elite starters such as Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole can prove highly profitable. The best bettors know when to pull the trigger on obvious value. Baseball betting is about far more than just starting pitchers nowadays. Bullpens are of almost equal importance, and many games are decided after the starters have left. Thus, overpaying for certain starters is a common mistake.

Look closely at the key stats each pitcher has posted. Some show terrible numbers, such as Nick Pivetta’s 10.34 ERA against Washington. Others seem to be simply a result of bad luck — the stats are good, but the won-lost record doesn’t match.

Last six starts vs. White Sox

Team record: 1-5, -10 units, ROI -166.7%

Individual record: 1-4, 33 innings

Key stats: ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.212, K’s/9 8.73

Team run support: 2.5 rpg

Schedule spots: Aug. 6-8, Aug. 27-29

Last six starts vs. Marlins

Team record: 2-4, -9.65 units, ROI -160.8%

Individual record: 1-4, 35 innings

Key stats: ERA 2.83, WHIP 1, K’s/9 13.11

Team run support: 5.2 rpg

Schedule spots: July 5-8

Last five starts vs. Marlins

Team record: 1-4, -7.55 units, ROI -151.0%

Individual record: 1-3, 34 innings

Key stats: ERA 2.38, WHIP 0.882, K’s/9 10.06

Team run support: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 18-20, May 24-27, June 29-July 1, July 16-18, Sept. 3-5, Oct. 1-3

Last five starts vs. Giants

Team record: 2-3, -6.95 units, ROI -139.0%

Individual record: 2-3, 28¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 2.86, WHIP 1.2, K’s/9 8.26

Team run support: 5 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, May 27-30, June 28-29, July 19-22, July 27-29, Sept. 3-5

Last five starts vs. Phillies

Team record: 1-4, -6.85 units, ROI -137.0%

Individual record: 1-2, 28¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.518, K’s/9 7.31

Team run support: 3.6 rpg

Schedule spots: July 18-20

Last five starts vs. Reds

Team record: 0-5, -6.75 units, ROI -135.0%

Individual record: 0-3, 25 innings

Key stats: ERA 8.28, WHIP 1.76, K’s/9 9

Team run support: 4.2 rpg

Schedule spots: May 28-30, July 2-4, July 26-29, Aug. 16-18, Sept. 6-8

Last five starts vs. Athletics

Team record: 0-5, -6.15 units, ROI -123.0%

Individual record: 0-3, 26¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.405, K’s/9 7.86

Team run support: 2.8 rpg

Schedule spots: May 14-16

Last five starts vs. Giants

Team record: 1-4, -6.15 units, ROI -123.0%

Individual record: 0-4, 22¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.432, K’s/9 11.68

Team run support: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: June 10-12, July 9-11

Last five starts vs. Blue Jays

Team record: 1-4, -6.1 units, ROI -122.0%

Individual record: 1-3, 29 innings

Key stats: ERA 4.04, WHIP 0.931, K’s/9 8.38

Team run support: 2.6 rpg

Schedule spots: Sept. 17-19, Sept. 23-25

Last five starts vs. Rays

Team record: 1-4, -6.05 units, ROI -121.0%

Individual record: 1-2, 29¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 3.68, WHIP 1.193, K’s/9 13.5

Team run support: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 12 (tonight!), May 31-June 2, July 27-29, Oct. 1-3

Last five starts vs. Indians

Team record: 0-5, -6 units, ROI -120.0%

Individual record: 0-1, 27¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.28, WHIP 1.39, K’s/9 8.23

Team run support: 2.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, June 24-27, Aug. 16-18, Sept. 6-9, Sept. 14-15.

Last five starts vs. Marlins

Team record: 1-4, -5.95 units, ROI -119.0%

Individual record: 1-2, 29¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.193, K’s/9 7.36

Team run support: 4 rpg

Last five starts vs. Angels

Team record: 1-4, -5.9 units, ROI -118.0%

Individual record: 1-3, 25¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.62, WHIP 1.105, K’s/9 11.01

Team run support: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: May 20, July 22-25

Last 10 starts vs. Pirates

Team record: 2-8, -11.55 units, ROI -115.5%

Individual record: 2-6, 58¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.097, K’s/9 5.4

Team run support: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 25-27, Sept. 2-4, Sept. 28-30

Last five starts vs. Athletics

Team record: 0-5, -5.7 units, ROI -114.0%

Individual record: 0-2, 28²/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.71, WHIP 1.012, K’s/9 10.99

Team run support: 3.2 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, May 27-30, June 14-16, July 19-20, July 29-Aug. 1, Sept. 17-19

Last nine starts vs. Nationals

Team record: 0-9, -10.2 units, ROI -113.3%

Individual record: 0-7, 35²/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 10.34, WHIP 2.215, K’s/9 8.07

Team run support: 3.1 rpg

Schedule spots: Oct. 1-3

Last five starts vs. Braves

Team record: 1-4, -5.65 units, ROI -113.0%

Individual record: 1-3, 27 1/3 innings

Key stats: ERA 5.6, WHIP 1.427, K’s/9 12.18

Team run support: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: July 31-June 3, Aug. 6-8, Aug. 13-15, Sept. 7-9

Last five starts vs. Rockies

Team record: 2-3, -5.65 units, ROI -113.0%

Individual record: 1-1, 28 innings

Key stats: ERA 5.14, WHIP 1.321, K’s/9 12.54

Team run support: 4.8 rpg

Schedule spots: Sept. 17-19, Sept. 27-29