Before the 2019 college football season began, there were hopes Saturday night’s ACC clash featuring No. 1 Clemson at Syracuse (ABC, 7:30 p.m.) would be a potential headline maker.
The Carrier Dome has hosted countless home ’dog upsets in its long history. Clemson would be in a potential letdown spot after facing a talented opponent from the SEC in Texas A&M. Syracuse hung tough at Clemson a year ago, losing a 27-23 heartbreaker before the Tigers’ offense ignited over the last two-thirds of the season.
Sure, Clemson was going to be a double-digit favorite (true for all the Tigers’ regular-season games). Summer estimates pegged the Orange in the range of a 17-point to 21-point underdog. But, at least there were some suggestions lightning could strike. Upsets do happen in that price range when super-motivated ‘dogs catch overconfident favorites flat-footed.
All that changed dramatically after Syracuse, which was +1, was slaughtered at Maryland last week, 63-20. Fans and bettors were reminded of the Orange’s vulnerability in a game that missed the spread by six touchdowns:
- Syracuse fell behind 42-13 in the first half, while allowing long touchdown drives of 67, 75, 75 and 86 yards. This speaks to poor preparation and an inability to make in-game adjustments.
- Syracuse was ultimately outgained 650-400 on 7.9 to 5.7 yards-per-play, even though the opposing Terrapins were mostly running clock with a big lead in the second half. Maryland won extended garbage time 21-7. That margin by itself would have been embarrassing if it hadn’t come on the heels of the first m-half debacle.
- Syracuse made it clear it hadn’t improved at all defensively from a sorry 2018. Last season, the Orange ranked 116th in pass defense, and 88th in total defense.
How could Syracuse stop the now-potent Clemson attack if inconsistent Maryland could move the ball and score at will?
Once last week’s action was in the books, Clemson went up on the board as a 26-point road favorite. Early money came in on the Tigers, raising the number to 28. There was some midweek sharp buy-back on the ’dog at that price. Be sure you monitor game-day pricing for a read on sharp sentiment. Early indicators suggest pro-bettor preferences for Clemson at -27 or less, but Syracuse at +28 or more.
Yesterday, we discussed handicapping college games with double-digit spreads. Those factors are clearly in play here. Handicappers must consider:
- Dabo Swinney’s interest (if any) in running up the score. The Clemson coach may be more focused on keeping everyone healthy with a playoff berth virtually certain at full strength.
- Syracuse’s ability to score from behind. The Orange lost the ball on downs or punted on their final five second-half drives at Maryland.
- Schedule dynamics. Clemson is in the projected letdown spot after controlling Texas A&M last week in a high-profile TV game. It could come in overconfident. Syracuse is a least in a bounce-back spot with conference revenge in front of what could be an influential home crowd.
Handicapping garbage time will be a recurrent theme through the coming months, even in prime-time TV showcases.
