Yesterday we looked at extended sample sizes for American League contenders. Today seems ideal to do the same in the NL, particularly with marquee matchups such as Cardinals-Braves and Rockies-Dodgers on the Wednesday ticket.
Though a couple of long shots still have a chance to crack the brackets, it looks as if the senior circuit will showcase five of the following six teams in October — Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Rockies and the Dodgers. It’s too early to finalize entries or matchups, but we can confidently look at those six and feel as if we have the bases covered for the final five.
NL contenders since end of April
- Cubs 72-52
- Dodgers 71-52
- Brewers 69-52
- Rockies 67-53
- Cardinals 68-56
- Braves 67-56
Before the season began, the Cubs and Dodgers were virtual co-favorites to win the NL (with the Nationals). Both are at the top of the heap if you throw out the month of April, and have played at a pace that would yield 93-94 wins over a full season in that lengthy stretch and just a shade under what the market expected for 2018. Given that the NL has been deeper and more competitive than expected, who’s to say that’s not “championship-caliber” baseball?
Those two teams are on top, but not by so much that you could rule out anyone else. Places one to six are separated by just 4¹/₂ games in the standings. It should be a great postseason. But see if anything interesting pops up if we narrow the focus to the past 2¹/₂ months.
NL contenders since end of June
- Rockies 41-26
- Cubs 42-27
- Cardinals 41-29
- Dodgers 40-29
- Brewers 38-31
- Braves 36-33
The Braves look more like pretenders if you focus on performance down the stretch. The Brewers aren’t much better. The Rockies impress. They are buoyed by a 15-5 record in one-run games, but if you mentally pencil in 12-8 for one-run results, the Rockies are still a threat.
A week ago in this space, we noted the Dodgers had the best composite skill-sets in the NL West race. On the heels of that article, the Dodgers beat the Reds, 8-1; then won the first three games of a weekend series against the Cardinals by scores of 9-7, 3-0, and 17-4 before losing the finale; then opened a series against Colorado with an 8-2 win. But, having an explosive skill-set isn’t the same as having one that’s consistently reliable.
That may be the essence of NL drama in October. Can the Dodgers and Cubs even out their production so it doesn’t cluster with superfluous runs in blowouts? If not, they will be overpriced in a competitive field because of public betting on name brands.
