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Before the Guardians and White Sox begin a four-game series in Cleveland, Jules Posner of The Action Network is here to deliver his best bet for the opener (video above).

The White Sox will send Lance Lynn to the hill tonight, while the Guardians — losers of four of their last five — will counter with Cal Quantrill.

Despite their recent dip in form, Posner believes the Guardians are in a good spot tonight at home.

“Lance Lynn has lost about a mile to a mile-and-a-half per hour off of all his pitches,” Posner explains. “He’s just looked much more hittable…without that extra zip.”

Plus, in two road starts this season, Lynn has stranded 88 percent of base-runners. For Posner, he expects that number to regress back to the mean at some point as he believes that percentage is unsustainable as the sample size increases.

On the flip-side, the Guardians arrive with an offense that should be able to take advantage of Lynn’s deficiencies. They’re both tough to strikeout and a high-contact team in all of Major League Baseball.

Further, just in the last two weeks, the Guardians have one of the worst league batting averages on balls in play. From Posner’s perspective, he believes they could see some positive regression on that metric soon.

For all those reasons, back the Guardians first-five innings moneyline (+100) on BetMGM and take their “atrocious” bullpen out of the equation.