Rutgers was one of the biggest surprises in sports betting this college basketball season, carrying an 18-10-1 record against the spread (64 percent) into its Big Ten tournament opener Thursday in Indianapolis vs. Michigan (noon, BTN).
The highlight in market terms was a stunning 11-1 ATS run from Nov. 26 through Jan. 19. Looking only at straight-up results, ninth-seeded Rutgers can point to victories over top-seed Wisconsin, No. 3 seed Maryland, No. 4 seed Illinois and No. 6 Penn State as proof of their Big Dance worthiness.
Joe Lunardi’s bracketology assessment at ESPN.com has the Scarlet Knights safely in the brackets, likely seeded in the eight-to-10 range depending on what happens in Indianapolis.
Sharps will definitely consider Rutgers for value bets as an underdog (it’s illegal to bet Rutgers games at sportsbooks in New Jersey, but you can do so in other legal jurisdictions). In favor of backing the Knights this week for a profit-making run:
- Rutgers carries double revenge into Thursday’s early start vs. Michigan. The Wolverines could be overconfident after winning 60-52 as four-point underdogs at the Rutgers Athletic Center, and 69-63 as 1¹/₂-point favorites in a special attraction at Madison Square Garden (where Michigan was considered the “home” team only on the electronic scoreboard).
- If Rutgers beats Michigan, it advances to face vulnerable top seed Wisconsin. Neither computers nor the betting marketplace considers the Badgers as best in the Big Ten. Even Lunardi has Wisconsin pegged as only a No. 4 seed in the Dance. This is about as friendly a pathway Rutgers could hope for from its 11-9 regular-season finish.
- Rutgers could cover the number as an underdog in a loss. Though it was only 2-8 straight up away from home in league play, Rutgers went 6-3-1 ATS.
A look at Ken Pomeroy’s market-respected tournament outlook and VSiN’s estimated “market” power ratings entering the event show why Rutgers is more likely to cash a ticket or two than to sweep the weekend.
Pomeroy’s pre-Big Ten tournament percentages (as tweeted @kenpomeroy): Michigan State 22.5 percent, Maryland 15.8 percent, Wisconsin 11.6 percent, Illinois 8.9 percent, Ohio State 8.9 percent, Michigan 7.7 percent, Iowa 6.6 percent, Penn State 4.9 percent, Rutgers 4.3 percent, Purdue 3.8 percent, Minnesota 3.5 percent, Indiana 1.8 percent, Northwestern .02 percent, Nebraska .01 percent.
VSiN’s pre-tournament estimated “market” power ratings: Michigan State 86, Maryland 84, Ohio State 83, Michigan 82, Iowa 81, Wisconsin 81, Illinois 81, Penn State 81, Purdue 81, Rutgers 79, Indiana 79, Minnesota 79, Northwestern 71, Nebraska 66.
Rutgers is about 96 percent not to cut down the nets but is within arm’s reach of Michigan and Wisconsin on the recent market scale in a very competitive conference.
This is an important tournament for bettors to scout because Lunardi currently has 10 league teams qualifying for the Dance. You’ll be handicapping and betting games involving Big Ten teams all through the month.
