When it comes to handicapping hockey games late in the regular season, the perceived motivation of one team relative to its opponents is a big factor for many bettors, and rightfully so.

Make no mistake about it, teams that are out of the race aren’t going to compete as hard as those that are fighting for a playoff spot or a division. The former, however, is often given more weight than the latter, and that might not be the proper way of going about it.

Relying solely on gut-feel to determine which team has a motivational edge in a given matchup is dangerous. Motivation is a factor that bookmakers consider when setting their lines, and if they’re not accurate in their assessment, the odds will usually be corrected quickly upon their release.

It’s best for bettors to adjust their expectations slightly based on which team has more to play for rather than to blindly bet on teams that have their backs against the wall. Sharp bettors look at motivation as just another factor they have to account for, which is exactly how they’ll approach the two games between the Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes on Monday and Tuesday.

The Hurricanes are holding onto first place while the Stars sit outside the playoff picture by just a couple of points with two games in hand on the Predators, who were in fourth entering Sunday. Both teams have a lot to play for but many bettors will look to the Stars and write the Hurricanes off altogether.

While the Stars do deserve a slight edge given their circumstances, betting the team anywhere close to the current price of +100 offered by BetMGM is ludicrous.

By my estimation, the Hurricanes will defeat the Stars approximately 61 percent of the time which translates to a price of -155. Oddsmakers at DraftKings missed the mark with their opening price of -134 which implies that they’ll only win the game 57 percent of the time.

Not only could we see the return of forward Teuvo Teravainen to the Hurricanes’ lineup on Monday, but the Stars could very well be without defenseman John Klingberg as he missed Saturday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings with an injury. Alexander Radulov has been shut down for the remainder of the season and Roope Hintz seems to be a perpetual game-time decision. If the Stars are without another key piece it could be too much to overcome.

Bettors can also forget about seeing Tyler Seguin return on Monday, according to head coach Rick Bowness, who said the forward isn’t ready to participate in contact drills. Carolina has owned the season series and is in a good position to improve on its 5-1 record against the Stars in this set of back-to-back games. If goaltender Petr Mrazek is healthy in time to take on the Stars, the team’s chances of winning would increase, but both Alex Nedeljkovic and James Reimer are capable of handling whatever this depleted Stars team can throw at them.

Backing the Hurricanes at -145 or better on the moneyline is a value bet, but laying a bigger price could still be justified if both Teravainen and Mrazek both return to the lineup.