Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs; Under 56.5: We could write chapter and verse about all the matchups and stats, but it comes down to the fact these teams are closer than a field goal in our power ratings and the game should be closer to pick ’em. I see this as ending up right around 27-24 either way, so I also like Under 56.5 and think all four teaser combinations could hit if you choose to play it that way.

Let’s not forget the Chiefs won the regular-season meeting 27-24, with the Buccaneers rallying to get the backdoor cover as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was the game in which Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill hooked up seven times for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, yet the Buccaneers still covered. I see no reason this shouldn’t also be a back-and-forth game with the SU and ATS results hanging in the balance late and the spread possibly coming in to play.

Though Mahomes is awesome, we can’t pass up Tom Brady in the underdog role, as he’s 6-3 SU and ATS as a playoff ’dog, including upsets of the Saints and Packers in the past two rounds. The Chiefs often start slowly in playoffs, and so does Brady in Super Bowls, so that’s why the 56.5 points will be hard to “over”come, plus the offenses could be slowed down with the forecast calling for thunderstorms throughout the day.

Championship Sunday: 1-1, Buccaneers (W), Bills (L).

2020-21 season: 17-21-2.