Finally, a break for the Giants offense!
The scoring woes of the G-Men thus far in the 2018 season can’t be fully blamed on a difficult schedule. But it certainly didn’t help that the early slate was loaded with good defenses.
How big a challenge was that schedule? That’s an important question for bettors to ponder as they consider this week’s Monday night attraction featuring the Giants visiting the defensively soft Falcons (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.).
Let’s start with traditional “yards-allowed-per-game” rankings entering Week 7 (arranged in schedule order): Jaguars, 3rd; Cowboys, 5th; Texans, 9th; Saints, 18th; Panthers, 14th; Eagles, 12th; Falcons, 30th.
Clearly that’s a tough start, with four opponents ranked in the top dozen, and nobody ranked in the bottom third until you get to Monday’s opponent.
But more fine-tuned defensive measures paint a slightly different picture. Many defenses have developed a philosophy of allowing yards in the middle of the field while clamping down once it’s time to protect the end zone. Let’s look at “Drive success rate,” a statistic created by Jim Armstrong, available at footballoutsiders.com. It emphasizes getting stops and keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone: Jaguars, 5th; Cowboys, 7th; Texans, 6th; Saints, 27th; Panthers, 22nd; Eagles, 4th; Falcons, 32nd.
Wow, that’s four teams in the top seven, but also a couple of friendlier spots. Perhaps it’s not a sign of the apocalypse that the Giants couldn’t score on Jacksonville (15 points), Dallas (13) and Philadelphia (13). Maybe it’s a great omen for success Monday that they scored a combined 51 points against the Saints and Panthers. The Falcons defense is worse than those two.
Betting markets are showing the Giants respect despite their disappointing 1-5 record. Atlanta (2-4) will be favored by more than a field goal at kickoff, but not much more. Point spreads across the landscape entering the weekend projected out to a final score in the range of 30-25. That would be a weird final score. In essence, it’s a 28-24 to a 31-27 type of game. Bettors have to decide if the Giants can hang within the number in a seesaw battle, or come through the back door if trailing by 9-12 in the final minutes.
A few Sundays back, we talked about how you could stick a fork in the Jets if they couldn’t take advantage of a brutal schedule spot for the Broncos. Denver was in a short week after losing a divisional rivalry heartbreaker on the heels of a tough opening schedule. The Jets passed that test.
Similarly, if the Giants can’t move the ball and score impressively against this awful Atlanta defense, it probably is time to tear it down and start over. The best possible scenario for Eli Manning and company to put up big numbers is indoors on a fast track against one of the league’s worst defenses. Can they do it?
