I love looking at common opponents, and both Florida and Mississippi State are 3-1 with the losses coming to Kentucky. Florida has the “better” loss, falling 26-17 compared to MSU’s 28-7 loss last week.

That’s not a huge difference, but it certainly makes it more puzzling that Florida is a touchdown underdog when I have it closer to a field goal. That’s enough for me, especially considering how much better Florida QB Feleipe Franks has looked than Nick Fitzgerald.

The play: Florida +7 ¹/₂.