The Yankees open a quick two-game series at home against the Orioles on Tuesday night. Earlier this month, the teams split a four-game set in Baltimore despite the Yankees outscoring the O’s 28-13. An average per-game score of 7 to 3.3 only yielded a 2-2 record.

July 9-11 at Baltimore
Yankees (-220) lost, 5-4
Yankees (-170) won, 10-2
Yankees (-230) lost, 6-5
Yankees (-160) won, 9-0

Yankees backers won a unit per game in the two victories, but lost a total of 4.5 units in the two defeats. So, -2.5 units in money terms despite scoreboard dominance.

That’s what can make handicapping games with high prices so tricky. Some of the wins are so easy that they fool bettors into thinking free money is on the way. The penalties for losses are stiff.

You saw one of the stiffest penalties in years this past weekend at the Stadium against the Royals. The Yanks won three of four games, but backers lost money because Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader was priced at an enormous -400.

July 26-29 vs. KC
Yankees (-270) won, 7-2
Yankees (-400) lost, 10-5
Yankees (-300) won, 5-4
Yankees (-320) won, 6-3

That’s a 3-1 series record, but the one loss was four units. That more than erased the profit on three one-unit victories.

In eight recent games against the certifiably horrible Orioles and Royals, the Yankees went 5-3 with a scoreboard edge of 51-32. Disappointed bettors went the equivalent of 5 wins and 8.5 losses for a loss of 3.5 units. Bettors opting for cheaper odds laying -1.5 runs cashed only three of eight tickets.

High prices are in store Tuesday and Wednesday versus Baltimore and will return next week in a three-game series at the White Sox, followed by four home games versus the Rangers.

It’s risky to bet the Yankees for “value” until they show they can dodge potholes against the league’s lemons. Affordable prices are looming in this week’s four-game series in Boston that begins Thursday. We’ll preview that huge series from a betting perspective in two days.