Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from Lincoln, Neb., features Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (+135) vs. James “The Texecutioner” Vick (-155) in a lightweight main event.

The play: This fight comes down to Gaethje staying with his plan: To get inside and wrestle the longer, more one-dimensional fighter to force this fight into a maul on the mat. Provided Gaethje employs all of the aspects of mixed martial arts in his arsenal, he should chop down the longer striker early with leg kicks, then take this fight to the floor where The Texecutioner will be unable to effectively compete over the course of five rounds. Take the underdog, Gaethje.