Back in late October, coach Luke Walton reportedly was reprimanded, admonished, and/or scolded by team president Magic Johnson after the Lakers dropped road games in San Antonio and Minnesota to fall to 2-5. LA’s defense was particularly atrocious during that poor start.
The Lakers have played 16 times since that well-publicized meeting, and are an astonishing 2-14 to the Under! Heading into Wednesday’s game against the Spurs (ESPN, 10:35 p.m.), the Lakers are on an eight-game Under streak.
Is that some sort of fluke trend that’s going to stop as soon as people notice? More likely … it’s a meaningful trend that’s going to stop when the market adjusts to how the Lakers are now prioritizing performances.
Here’s the eight-Under streak (odds from covers.com):
Lakers Limbo (under the bar!)
| Matchup | O/U | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers/Heat | 225 | 210 |
| Lakers/Cavaliers | 221 | 214 |
| Jazz/Lakers | 221 | 173 |
| Magic/Lakers | 217¹/₂ | 212 |
| Lakers/Nuggets | 219¹/₂ | 202 |
| Pacers/Lakers | 220¹/₂ | 200 |
| Mavericks/Lakers | 223¹/₂ | 217 |
| Suns/Lakers | 221¹/₂ | 216 |
There hasn’t been much of an adjustment in the lines yet. The combination of oddsmakers/sharps that shape the totals market are keeping Over/Unders within an arm’s reach of 221. Lakers games haven’t even reached 218 on the scoreboard once in the eight-game streak, with midpoints of 210 and 212.
Bettors have to be careful trying to create narratives to “explain” point spread or Over/Under streaks they happen to come across. It’s not hard to “data mine” streaks after they’ve happened. This one wasn’t particularly hard to anticipate (and ride) given the team’s reaction to that horrible defensive start:
- Lakers players brought more defensive intensity.
- Then the team acquired Tyson Chandler!
You don’t acquire Tyson Chandler to run track meets. He’s a deliberate, defensive force who is going to own the glass in his 20 minutes per night. The Lakers are 2-11 to the Under since he joined the team.
LA currently ranks in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (points allowed adjusted for pace) despite defending so poorly in those first seven outings.
There are no sure things in sports betting. Maybe the Lakers won’t be able to maintain such a high level of defense. Betting markets should eventually catch “down” to the lower scoring totals, though missing a logical 88 percent dynamic for this long is pretty stubborn. For now, this is at least something bettors should keep an eye on.
It’s not uncommon for observers to focus so much on LeBron James that they miss important characteristics of his teams. It might be a while before a TV network says, “You know, these guys sure are playing a lot of Unders.”
