As the American League East champion New York Yankees begin the final week of their regular season Tuesday night at Tampa Bay, one key goal is front and center: Win home-field advantage through the postseason.
The Yankees and Houston Astros have been neck and neck for the AL’s top seed for weeks. Over in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers will need help this week to get the nod in a potential World Series meeting against either.
Here’s what’s left:
- Yankees: Two games at Tampa Bay (which is still in a heated battle to win a wild card), then three at non-contender Texas.
- Astros: Two games at Seattle, four at the Angels, two teams that are playing out the string. (Note that Houston holds a tiebreaker edge over the Yankees because of a 4-3 record head-to-head during the regular season. A tie goes to the Astros.)
- Dodgers: Three games at San Diego, three games at San Francisco, both also eliminated. (If it comes into play, the Yankees hold a tiebreaker edge over Dodger Blue thanks to a 2-1 series victory in an interleague series).
The three superpowers will be clear market favorites in all meaningful games vs. non-contenders (early week results could cause some late-week lame-duck spots). But, teams don’t automatically win as favorites. A squad priced at -200 every day will likely win only 67 percent of its games; a team priced at -300 would win only 75 percent of the time.
Bettors must avoid the trap of assuming daily victories. Road games in particular are never sure things. This race could stay extremely interesting through the weekend.
Global markets are still pricing futures on the assumption Houston will hold home field through the brackets. The Astros have been clear favorites since acquiring Zack Greinke prior to the trade deadline. Futures odds already can help us project a head-to-head series price if the Yankees meet the Astros for the AL pennant in that scenario:
- American League: In a global composite of futures prices, Houston is about 55 percent to reach the World Series; the Yankees about 33 percent. That would suggest Houston would be in the -160 to -170 range in a series vs. the Yankees. How do we get that? Just divide the two numbers. You already know that percentages of 67 percent and 33 percent would yield about 2/1 (or -200), 75 percent and 25 percent around 3/1 (or -300). Dividing 55 by 33 gives you 1.67 (or -167).
- World Series: Here the Astros are around 33 percent, the Dodgers 28 percent, and the Yankees 20 percent. Dividing 33 by 20 yields 1.65, or -165 on a money line … confirming a likely head-to-head series price in the ALCS.
You can see that the Astros would be slight favorites over the Dodgers. Projecting Dodgers-Yankees is dicier because New York would earn additional market respect for knocking out Houston.
VSiN looks forward to covering the Yankees through the postseason for sports bettors from a market perspective.
