Wednesday night’s Major League Baseball telecast on ESPN features the Cubs visiting the Dodgers. Those teams are on the short list to win the National League pennant on current futures prices.
Interestingly, all three preseason divisional favorites — those two teams and the Nationals — are still the top three choices even though none are in first place as we approach the midway point of the season.
What’s the deal?
Pennant prices for NL playoff contenders, with win percentage equivalents:
Team Odds %Chance
Dodgers 7/2 22%
Cubs 7/2 22%
Nationals 4/1 20%
Brewers 5/1 17%
Braves 13/2 13%
D’backs 15/2 12%
Phillies 17/2 11%
Giants 9/1 10%
Cardinals 22/1 4%
You’ll note those equivalents add up to 131 percent. Sports books build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. That’s why futures prices rarely represent “true odds” or offer betting value. Generally speaking, they’re priced to keep informed gamblers from betting them! Only fans supporting their favorite teams, or bettors unaware of the poor returns, will take shots.
But, the crowded nature of the current NL landscape has pumped a little air into prices for the duo involved in Wednesday’s ESPN showcase. Should either (or both) go on hot runs that make winning their divisions likely, the price will move toward the 9/5 odds currently available on the Yankees and Astros to win the American League pennant (36 percent apiece).
If you’re a Cubs or Dodgers fan and you’re confident that big run is coming, 7/2 to win the NL pennant is probably the best you’re going to see.



