San Diego has won three games in the West Coast Conference Tournament to get to the semifinals and has a St. Mary’s team that had a bye to this point on deck.
The last time these two met, St. Mary’s got a 66-46 home win on Feb. 23 to sweep the season series, but the Toreros have gone 4-1 since that loss, covering all but one of those spreads.
Neither of these teams goes very far into its bench. Jordan Ford of St. Mary’s ranks 31st in the country among all Division I players in minutes per game while San Diego’s guards Isaiah Wright and Tyler Williams both are in the top 60.
Though St. Mary’s ranks 14th among Division I teams in rebounding rate, both teams pull in about the same amount of rebounds per game, and San Diego’s Isaiah Pinero is the best true post player in this contest.
St. Mary’s also does not have as much ball movement as San Diego and relies a lot on guys creating points on one-on-one situations. The Gaels are 352nd among 353 Division I teams in assists per made field goal rate, which should help a San Diego defense which ranks 284th in the country in opponent’s free throws made per 100 possessions.
San Diego has played five total games at Orleans Arena and gone 4-1 straight up and against the spread in those games. Prior to the WCC Tournament, San Diego played in December’s Continental Tires Classic in this arena, defeating Washington State and losing in double overtime to a fully healthy Drake group.
The court familiarity coupled with revenge and too little ball movement from the Gaels should give a hot San Diego bunch a cover and a chance to win outright.
The play: San Diego, +5.



