What world are we living in where the 1-5 Colts are favored by more than a touchdown? I originally was planning to pass on this game if Nathan “Pick-Six” Peterman was going to start for Buffalo, but now Derek Anderson will get the start. Anderson has always been serviceable, so even if he’s rusty I feel confident he’ll take care of the ball (certainly better than Peterman).

Keep in mind that the Bills have quietly been playing decent defense, ranked No. 3 with only 311.7 yards allowed per game. That should keep them in the game with a chance to spring another upset like they did against the Vikings and Titans (and nearly again last week in spread-covering loss to the Texans). But make no mistake, this is more of a bet against the Colts, who are in the favorite role the first time this season.

The play: Bills +7¹/₂.