For last weekend’s debut of the Alliance of American Football, none of the opening spreads were more than five points. This week, none are fewer than six.

We see something similar (though not as drastic) every year between Week 1 and Week 2 of the NFL schedule. There’s an overreaction as every team that starts 1-0 is seen as a contender and every team that starts 0-1 is in a “must-win” situation to avoid the dreaded 0-2. That’s tempered a little bit in the NFL, as we know a lot more about those teams coming into each season than anyone (oddsmakers, bettors, casual fans, etc.) did about the AAF teams before the eight-team league kicked off last weekend.

The game I like the best is Salt Lake +7 at Birmingham (Saturday, 2:05 p.m.). Birmingham shut out Memphis, 26-0, but certainly benefited from playing arguably the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, Salt Lake had to go up against Arizona, the AAF preseason favorite, and went toe-to-toe with the best team in the league before suffering a 38-22 defeat after quarterback Josh Woodrum was injured in the second quarter and replaced by Matt Linehan.

I made this line pick ’em (regardless of which Salt Lake QB starts, and after factoring in home-field advantage) and was thrilled when it opened Birmingham -3¹/₂ at the MGM books in Las Vegas, and then even happier to be getting more than a touchdown now (note: for those who don’t know, AAF teams must go for two after each touchdown, so +7 is even stronger than in an NFL game).

The play: Salt Lake Stallions +7.