Sharps are flashing the “buy” sign on Florida State! Well, at least they were earlier this summer at point spreads of -5, -5¹/₂, -6, and -6¹/₂ in Monday night’s ACC showcase against Virginia Tech (8 p.m., ESPN).
Through the first full week of college action, professional wagerers were still hitting the Seminoles at -7, but opposing sentiment would join the market on the Hokies at +7¹/₂.
In terms of the full 2018 season, the fact that the line is near a touchdown suggests that the consensus of the market believes FSU is at least 3-4 points better than No. 20 Virginia Tech on a neutral field. Given so many major changes from 2017, a bold sentiment.
Reasons for enthusiasm in Tallahassee
- QB Deondre Francois returns after long layoff
- Willie Taggart is the new head coach
- Harlon Barnett is the new defensive coordinator
Taggart will run a spread offense that takes full advantage of the skill sets of his offensive stars. The pro style run by predecessor Jimbo Fisher had largely been figured out by opponents … working only against outmatched talent.
Barnett impressed as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He will continue the aggressive tradition at FSU while adding in some creative wrinkles.
FSU’s 2017 campaign was derailed early when Francois was injured in the second half of the season opener against Alabama. The Seminoles never recovered, finishing No. 100 in total offense despite facing several vulnerable defenses.
Sharps, particularly those who are math based, see Florida State as a potential Final Four sleeper. Its toughest regular-season game is at home (vs. Clemson). Road games at Miami and Notre Dame are winnable if this early enthusiasm is justified. If not, pro bettors should have that figured out after “challenge” games vs. Virginia Tech, at Syracuse, and at Louisville in the first half of the season.
Part of reading the market is divining sharp sentiment when question marks abound. If a new major league pitcher you’re not familiar with is getting backed with intensity, you can be sure he’s a flamethrower likely to succeed. If a team with a new head coach is getting market respect before it takes the field (or basketball court) in its first game, you can be sure sharps either love that head coach or believe his approach is a great fit for the program.
Sharps aren’t right about everything. But recreational bettors hoping to improve their personal performance should notice signs that respected market influences are flashing. It might help you win several bets over the course of a season in your quest to beat the vigorish.
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