With the Yankees’ long western swing in the rearview mirror, bettors have a much clearer picture of how good this team is now… and how truly impressive it might be later in the season when healthy stars return.
Before the trip, VSiN mentioned an extreme home/road split might be creating illusions about early-season performance. A nine-game road itinerary against the Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks evened things out. The Yankees enter this weekend’s home series against the Twins having played 15 home games and 15 road games.
A 6-3 trip brought the Yankees to 17-13, which represents a pace that would yield a 92-70 full-season record. That’s “wild-card caliber” with a shorthanded attack that’s likely to get better with more potent lineups.
There is a gray cloud hanging over the team, though. Those first 30 games came against what turned out to be a very weak schedule. The Yankees dodged April juggernaut Tampa Bay completely within the AL East. Outside the division, there were few playoff contenders on the slate.
If you froze the season at the moment Wednesday’s loss at Arizona ended, the breakdown looked like — Yankees 0-5 versus winners, 17-8 versus losers.
Hey, nothing wrong with crushing losers. That’s what great teams do. If the schedule is going to throw last-place teams at you, beat them like a drum. The five flunked tests were three losses at Houston by scores of 4-3, 6-3, and 8-6; and two losses at Arizona by scores of 3-1 and 3-2.
A road run differential of -9 through five games isn’t the end of the world. And, the lack of run production probably won’t be an issue once more healthy bodies are back on the field. But, it is a potentially bad portent for these testers on the immediate horizon:
- Yankees play host to Minnesota Friday-Sunday.
- Yankees play host to Seattle Monday-Thursday.
- Yankees visit Tampa Bay May 10-12.
That’s 10 games against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. And, based on early-season results, 10 games where you probably shouldn’t be betting the Yankees unless they establish versus Minnesota and Seattle that they can play to oft-inflated market expectations. Let the offense show you it can score runs versus quality before investing.
It’s hard to profit betting the Yankees most of the time because of money-line pricing.
That 17-8 record versus “losers” has still been a fractional money loser. The Yankees are down just a bit over five betting units in those five failures versus “winners” because they were slight favorites Wednesday in the desert.
For games in The Bronx, sharps generally use a “fade the Yankees or pass” strategy because the Bombers are too expensive to trust.
That might be more true now than ever because of lineup issues and early-season form from the Twins and Mariners.



