If it weren’t for the Yankees, the Astros would be the talk of the American League this year.

After a thrilling walk-off single by Aaron Judge to complete the comeback by the Yankees against the Astros Thursday night, the two sides will meet again Friday evening for the second game of their four-game series. 

With a pair of aces ready to toe the rubber for their respective clubs, there is plenty of value to be found in betting this matchup of playoff contenders. Let’s dive in.

With Justin Verlander and Luis Severino on the hill, don’t expect there to be a ton of scoring. Although Verlander is coming off his worst outing of the year, giving up four earned runs and nine hits in only 3 2/3 innings of work against the White Sox last week, he has been otherwise dominant this season. 

Verlander is eighth in Major League Baseball with a 2.30 ERA, and is fourth in WHIP at a sparkling 0.89. Adding to the mix, Houston has a heavily-slanted O/U record this season, checking in at 23-42-4. The Yankees, who are the best team in baseball, also sport an O/U record that leans towards the under, at 32-36-2.

Yes, I’m aware that the Yankees are the best team in baseball and are on a historic pace, but I still wouldn’t expect an offensive explosion in the Bronx tonight. 

Yordan Alvarez is very good at hitting baseballs a long way. He’s behind only Judge for the most home runs in baseball with 22 of them, and is in the midst of a true breakout season at 25 years old.

Alvarez finished last year with a .277 batting average. So far on the 2022 season, he has cranked that up to .317 with a hefty 1.071 OPS, all while striking out only 15.7% of the time. He has the third-most hard hit balls (exit velocity over 95 MPH) in the league, and is tied with Giancarlo Stanton for the highest average exit velocity in baseball at 96.1 MPH. 

Alvarez can rake, and Severino poses a juicy matchup for him. 

Severino has been strong against right-handed bats this year, holding them to a .191 batting average and four home runs in 160 batters faced. Against lefties, however, Severino has surrendered a .235 average (still strong, but not as strong), and six home runs in 108 batters faced. 

Since the start of June, Alvarez has been absolutely insane at the plate. His average exit velocity over that time is 97.8 MPH, he’s hitting .439 with a 1.407 OPS, his strikeout rate is a paltry 10.3%, and his wRC+ is a staggering 294. He would be the AL MVP frontrunner right now if it wasn’t for Judge, and he’s worth a look to go yard with the hitter-friendly right field of Yankee Stadium in front of him.

While I don’t anticipate a ton of runs, I still expect the Yankees to win, because that’s just what they do this year.

At a robust 52-18 record, there are plenty of reasons to lean towards the Yankees. The odds are a little wonky, though – oddsmakers have the Yankees as favorites at -130 odds, but have their chances of winning by two or more runs set at +155. Essentially, they’re telling you that they expect this to be a tight, evenly-matched game, with the edge going to New York. While I don’t disagree with that, needing to win by two runs at home doesn’t seem far-fetched at all. 

The Yankees boast a 30-7 home record, and have won all of their last 10 home games. At home this season, New York has a +86.0 run differential.

If I can get plus money backing the best team in baseball with the best home record and the best home run differential to score two more runs than the other guys, I’m doing it.